The A10 Space Race

Saint Louis and VCU both finished 15-3 last winter, earned different trophies and won NCAA Tournament games. That history raises the temperature without settling this race. Neither returns the same offensive engine, while Dayton lost the backcourt that carried it to the A10 title game. The champion will be the team that relocates creation most cleanly. VCU begins with the league’s most dependable pressure system. Nyk Lewis was the A10 Rookie of the Year, Brandon Jennings paired 52 steals and 24 blocks with 41.2 percent shooting from three, and Lazar Djokovic produced 13.2 points while living at the foul line. The missing piece is Terrence Hill Jr.’s late-clock shotmaking. Torey Alston brings 13.1 points, 7.9 rebounds and efficient interior finishing, while Nyle Ralph-Beyer made 92 threes at 45.2 percent. If Lewis’s jumper forces defenders over screens, VCU can turn its defense into an offense with more room than last season. Saint Louis must relocate the intelligence that used to live at center. Robbie Avila led the Billikens with 4.1 assists, making the elbow a passing station for the league’s best shooting ecosystem. Trey Green returns after hitting an A10-best 44.2 percent from three. Ishan Sharma made 80 threes at 41.7 percent. Quentin Jones was one of only three Division I players with 100 assists, 34 threes and 30 blocks, while Amari McCottry adds another creator from a 6-foot-5 frame. Elijah Strong and freshman Jamison White should make the frontcourt more physical. The question is whether four perimeter playmakers can reproduce Avila’s shared reads. Dayton changes the geometry. Amaël L’Etang averaged 11.6 points, recorded six double-doubles and led the Flyers with 41 blocks. Grant Randall arrives with 11.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 40 made threes, while Jalen Haynes supplies a 6-foot-8, 250-pound power option. Landen Joseph and Travis Perry must deliver the ball early enough for that size to become an advantage instead of congestion. Even the lower middle has real teeth. Rhode Island retained six scholarship players, then added Dylan Williamson, a 14.6-point guard with a near 2-to-1 career assist-turnover ratio, and OVC Rookie of the Year Matas Deniusas. Fordham still has Rikus Schulte, who averaged 10.7 points, 9.1 rebounds, shot 56.3 percent and recorded nine double-doubles. Neither is a title favorite. Both own the kind of stable, specific strength that turns a January road game into an at-large problem while newly assembled contenders are still negotiating roles. VCU remains the pick because its defense can win while its new hierarchy forms. Saint Louis has the cleanest perimeter skill, and Dayton owns the matchup nobody else can copy. The crown will go to the team that can still manufacture a good shot in the final eight seconds of a road game when its first idea is gone.