Top Billing, Toppin Pending

Arizona owned the Big 12 last season. The Wildcats won the regular season, swept through the conference tournament and gave every challenger a clear standard to chase. A few months later, the league has another crowded title race and a favorite with an unusual problem. Texas Tech sits atop our projection while JT Toppin works through an ACL recovery that could keep the best player in the conference out for a meaningful part of the schedule. Picking the Red Raiders first requires trust in everything Grant McCasland has built around him. Texas Tech can handle the early months by spreading responsibility across a veteran roster. Darrion Williams can bring the ball up, initiate offense from either elbow and punish smaller defenders in the post. Cruz Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn arrive after averaging more than 20 points at their previous stops, giving McCasland two guards who can create late in the clock. Jamichael Stillwell attacks the offensive glass, while Bassala Bagayoko brings length and mobility around the rim. Donovan Atwell would stretch defenses well beyond the arc, though his fifth year status remains tied to ongoing litigation. Tech has several ways to manufacture points while Toppin rehabs. The Red Raiders will look different once Toppin returns. He was averaging 21.8 points, 10.8 rebounds and 4.2 offensive boards before tearing the ACL in his right knee. His touch in the lane, work on the glass and ability to run the floor make simple possessions productive. Williams can slide into more favorable matchups, and the guards gain room to turn the corner. Tech may drop a game or two while roles settle. By February, this could be the deepest and most adaptable roster in the league. Arizona has every reason to believe the trophies can stay in Tucson. Tommy Lloyd still has the size and skill to play at speed without rushing. Motiejus Krivas averaged 10.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks, giving the Wildcats a true interior target and an anchor at the other end. Ivan Kharchenkov supplies length and quick decisions on the wing. Caleb Holt adds force in transition and can defend the best perimeter scorer. Derek Dixon gives Arizona another composed ballhandler when the first action stalls. The reigning champions should score before defenses get organized, then lean on Krivas when conference games slow down. Houston remains the opponent nobody enjoys seeing twice. Kelvin Sampson keeps winning possessions through offensive rebounds, deflections and physical work. Joseph Tugler collected 111 offensive rebounds, blocked 55 shots and finished as a finalist for national defensive player of the year. Dedan Thomas Jr. gives the Cougars a seasoned organizer who can reach the paint and find shooters after the defense collapses. Delrecco Gillespie adds another powerful rebounder after producing a national best 22 double doubles at Kent State. Houston can drag any game into a range where one timely three decides it. Kansas brings the widest range of outcomes among the contenders. Tyran Stokes can rebound, lead the break and finish through contact, the sort of versatile star who changes a matchup before a play is called. Christian Reeves offers a vertical target and a large body at the rim. Leroy Blyden Jr. averaged 16.4 points and 4.5 assists at Toledo, while Taylen Kinney gives Bill Self another aggressive handler. Close games will reveal how quickly the new guards learn when to feed Stokes, when to attack and when to settle the floor. If that late clock offense matures, fourth place will feel conservative. Iowa State has to manage an awkward opening stretch after Killyan Toure underwent shoulder surgery with a return expected in January. Toure showed his ceiling with 25 points, 11 rebounds and six assists in the NCAA Tournament. T.J. Otzelberger still has the personnel to make opponents uncomfortable. Jaquan Johnson brings relentless ball pressure and averaged 2.5 steals last season. Ryan Prather Jr. takes care of the ball, Jamarion Batemon supplies needed shooting and Blake Buchanan finishes efficiently around the basket. The Cyclones can stay near the leaders by turning defense into early offense and keeping half court possessions clean until Toure is ready. The league gets unruly below that group. Oklahoma State has a defender and rebounder in Kashie Natt, a dangerous shooter in Jordan Burks and another playmaker in Luka Bogavac. BYU can hand Robert Wright III the ball and surround him with Collin Chandler and Tyler Betsey. Jerrod Calhoun is installing a faster, wider offense at Cincinnati with 13 newcomers, which could produce brilliant nights and messy ones. Randy Bennett brought his Saint Mary’s structure to Arizona State, where Paulius Murauskas and Joel Foxwell already understand how to play inside it. UCF, Utah and Colorado each built around a clear skill, whether it is backcourt disruption, forced turnovers or efficient guard play. Even the bottom third has enough experience to ruin a contender’s week. Texas Tech is the pick, and it comes with the tension that makes this race worth following. Arizona already knows how to win it. Houston can squeeze the life out of a talented offense. Kansas owns a frightening ceiling, and Iowa State will grow stronger as winter moves along. The Red Raiders have the most answers across 20 games. Toppin’s return can turn a deep roster into a complete one.