Big Sky, Bigger Guess

Last March, we felt pretty smart for calling Idaho's trip to the NCAA tournament. Four months later, our board has Idaho 10th and Idaho State 11th, and somehow that is the easy part. The hard part is finding one team whose advantage survives every style. Montana State gets No. 1 because its questions are smaller, not because its ceiling towers over the league. The Bobcats went 18-14, finished 12-6 and retained every scholarship player who had eligibility remaining. Jed Miller and Patrick McMahon leave major usage, but Matt Logie can redistribute it inside a familiar structure. Christian King averaged 12.6 points and made 56 threes; Jeremiah Davis earned All-Defensive honors while adding 1.4 steals per game. Isaiah Crane arrives as the Frontier Conference Player of the Year after averaging 19.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists at Carroll while shooting 50 percent from three. King supplies spacing, Davis supplies resistance and Crane supplies creation. No contender starts with more shared language. Portland State at No. 2 is the opposite wager. The 13-5 regular-season champion lost Jaylin Henderson, Terri Miller Jr. and Tre-Vaughn Minott, then imported two Division II wrecking balls. Jaquay Randolph averaged 20.8 points and a national-best 15.4 rebounds while shooting 61 percent; Antonio Pusateri added 16.7 points, 11.0 rebounds and 37 blocks. If former Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year Koren Johnson recovers his Washington form, the Vikings can pair ball-screen creation with the league's most punishing glass. The risk: almost every featured role is changing levels, teams or both. Southern Utah has the cleanest star case. Jaiden Feroah averaged 13.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks on 56/43/86 shooting splits, and 63-percent finisher JaJuan Nicholls gives the Thunderbirds another screen-and-roll target in their Big Sky return. Eastern Washington has the cleanest fit: Alton Hamilton IV scored 13.5 per game on 57.2-percent shooting, and Jalen Griffith arrives with 11.9 points, 3.4 assists and better than 41 percent from three. Southern Utah can own the paint; Eastern can stretch it. The race does not end at fourth. Montana replaces Money Williams with Jordan Clark, Jalen Brown and Garret Dutro, three lower-level creators who combined for more than 3,000 points. Weber State still owns a 10-man menu around Brock Felder's rim protection. Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona rebuilt with accomplished newcomers at the point and center, while Utah Tech can hand a large role to four-star freshman Christian Gibson. Each owns a specific way to ruin a favorite's road trip. That is why the standings compress to 14-6 at the top, a three-way 10-10 knot in the middle and almost no comfortable night. Montana State is the safest choice because continuity should travel before new star power does. Portland State has more muscle, Southern Utah has the best two-way player and Eastern Washington may have the best inside-out fit. The champion will be the team that finds a closer, protects the paint and values the ball first. Under this Big Sky, first place is a forecast, not a fact.