Big West
The West Is Won on the Way Out
Tyson Dunn turns UC San Diego’s farewell season into a multi-handler title bid. Miro Little and CJ Shaw give departing UC Santa Barbara the league’s cleanest inside-out counter, while Josiah Davis tries to keep the new 12-team map from becoming a two-team goodbye tour.
The cover line
Utah Valley and California Baptist arrive after meeting for the WAC title, but both must replace the engines that got them there. UC Irvine counters with Russell Turner’s defensive infrastructure, and a 7-foot-9 wild card in Olivier Rioux.
Projected champion
UCSD
The team to beat on our official board
Dark horse
Sac St.
The team most likely to break the bracket
Projected NCAA bids
1
A deep one-bid race with enough veteran creation to threaten a first-round upset.
Chaos rating
82 / 100
How likely the board is to get weird
The quick read
Conference superlatives
The opening tip
First Impressions, Last Shots
Jumbo playmakers, high-volume shooting and a renewed arms race at center define a 12-team league where four teams will not even reach Henderson.
The defending tournament champion is gone, three members have moved in and the projected top two already have one foot out the door. Hawai‘i left after beating UC Irvine in Henderson; California Baptist, Sacramento State and Utah Valley arrived July 1; UC San Diego and UC Santa Barbara are scheduled for the WCC next summer. For one season, the 12-team Big West is a housewarming and farewell party at once. Only eight teams reach the conference tournament, so just making Henderson is now part of the title race. UC San Diego is our safest pick because its answers overlap. Tom Beattie averaged 10.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists; Rahmir Barno arrives after handing out 5.0 assists per game; Alex Chaikin and Kayde Dotson both made at least 38 percent from three. Tyson Dunn’s return from injury gives Clint Allard another organizer without sacrificing shooting or perimeter size. UC Santa Barbara’s farewell case starts with size: Miro Little creates from a 6-foot-4 frame, CJ Shaw shot 43.2 percent from three, Viljami Vartiainen made 76 triples at 42.2 percent and Eric Dibami supplies 7.4 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. UCSD wins through redundancy; UCSB stretches every matchup. The newcomers are not ceremonial. California Baptist beat Utah Valley 63–61 in the WAC final, reached its first Division I NCAA tournament and went 5–2 against future Big West opponents. Utah Valley won a second straight WAC regular-season title with an offense that shot 50.1 percent and averaged 18.5 assists. Both must replace their engines: CBU loses 23.2-point scorer Dominique Daniels Jr., while UVU loses its top three scorers and Trevan Leonhardt’s 205 assists. Sacramento State imports Mikey Williams, 101-three marksman Larry Hughes II and organizer Marcus Wilson, but a defense that allowed 82.0 points has to make all that creation matter. The old guard still owns the sharpest individual weapons. CSUN returns Player of the Year Josiah Davis after a 15.9-point, 7.4-assist season, but must rebuild the shooting and offensive rebounding that converted his passes. Cal Poly took 32.7 threes per game and gives 20.4-point scorer Hamad Mousa permission to flip any favorite’s cold stretch. UC Irvine lost Kyle Evans’s record-setting rim protection and two primary scorers, then answered with a 7-foot-9 wild card in Olivier Rioux, more developmental bet than proven replacement. In a season built around arrivals and exits, adaptability is the only real incumbent.
The defining storylineCan WAC finalists California Baptist and Utah Valley replace the primary creators behind their 25-win seasons quickly enough to challenge the Big West’s established powers?
Official projection + model comparison
The big board
See how every team stacks up through projected records, finish ranges, and the model’s view of the race.
Ranking machine · comparison at a glance
Editorial board vs. model
Teams are ordered by the official Shooty Hoops editorial rank.
- 1UCSDUCSD returns Beath, Beattie and Chaikin from a 23-win team, then adds three transfer guards who combined for 34.1 points and 8.8 assists.Conf / overall16-4 / 24-8TierFavoriteCeiling / floor1–3Boards agree · #11Official rankUCSDUCSD returns Beath, Beattie and Chaikin from a 23-win team, then adds three transfer guards who combined for 34.1 points and 8.8 assists.Boards agree · #1Conf / overall16-4 / 24-8TierFavoriteRange1–3
- 2UCSBOn its final Big West lap, UCSB surrounds 6-4 playmaker Miro Little with two 40-percent-caliber shooters and an All-CUSA defender at center.Conf / overall15-5 / 22-10TierContenderCeiling / floor1–4Boards agree · #22Official rankUCSBOn its final Big West lap, UCSB surrounds 6-4 playmaker Miro Little with two 40-percent-caliber shooters and an All-CUSA defender at center.Boards agree · #2Conf / overall15-5 / 22-10TierContenderRange1–4
- 3CSUNReigning Player of the Year Josiah Davis returns to organize nine newcomers, making imported shooting, Omot’s health and a rebuilt defensive glass the top-three wager.Conf / overall14-6 / 21-11TierContenderCeiling / floor2–85 spots higher than published model · #83Official rankCSUNReigning Player of the Year Josiah Davis returns to organize nine newcomers, making imported shooting, Omot’s health and a rebuilt defensive glass the top-three wager.5 spots higher than published model · #8Conf / overall14-6 / 21-11TierContenderRange2–8
- 4UC IrvineThe reigning regular-season champion replaces 49.3 points and a record-setting rim protector, but Nils Cooper, Jovan Jester and 7-9 Olivier Rioux give the remodel shape.Conf / overall13-7 / 20-12TierContenderCeiling / floor2–7Boards agree · #44Official rankUC IrvineThe reigning regular-season champion replaces 49.3 points and a record-setting rim protector, but Nils Cooper, Jovan Jester and 7-9 Olivier Rioux give the remodel shape.Boards agree · #4Conf / overall13-7 / 20-12TierContenderRange2–7
- 5Utah ValleyThe back-to-back WAC champion arrives with a proven defensive blueprint and punishing interior duo, but without the lead creators who made the machine hum.Conf / overall12-8 / 19-13TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–8Boards agree · #55Official rankUtah ValleyThe back-to-back WAC champion arrives with a proven defensive blueprint and punishing interior duo, but without the lead creators who made the machine hum.Boards agree · #5Conf / overall12-8 / 19-13TierDangerous MiddleRange3–8
- 6Sac St.Bibby has built the league's loudest backcourt and finally added size; whether the Hornets contend depends on defense turning the spectacle into substance.Conf / overall11-9 / 18-14TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor2–103 spots lower than published model · #36Official rankSac St.Bibby has built the league's loudest backcourt and finally added size; whether the Hornets contend depends on defense turning the spectacle into substance.3 spots lower than published model · #3Conf / overall11-9 / 18-14TierDangerous MiddleRange2–10
- 7Cal PolyThe league's best returning scorer headlines a nearly intact top-10 three-point attack; Cal Poly's ceiling depends on whether continuity finally reaches the defensive end.Conf / overall10-10 / 17-15TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–10Boards agree · #77Official rankCal PolyThe league's best returning scorer headlines a nearly intact top-10 three-point attack; Cal Poly's ceiling depends on whether continuity finally reaches the defensive end.Boards agree · #7Conf / overall10-10 / 17-15TierDangerous MiddleRange3–10
- 8CSUBTodd Lee brings pace, history and two big playmaking guards to a near-total rebuild; shooting decides whether the revival begins above or below the cutoff line.Conf / overall9-11 / 15-17TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor5–112 spots higher than published model · #108Official rankCSUBTodd Lee brings pace, history and two big playmaking guards to a near-total rebuild; shooting decides whether the revival begins above or below the cutoff line.2 spots higher than published model · #10Conf / overall9-11 / 15-17TierDangerous MiddleRange5–11
- 9Cal BaptistThe WAC champion arrives with a new league, a new coach and a proven scoring tandem, but almost no tested frontcourt.Conf / overall8-12 / 14-18TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–123 spots higher than published model · #129Official rankCal BaptistThe WAC champion arrives with a new league, a new coach and a proven scoring tandem, but almost no tested frontcourt.3 spots higher than published model · #12Conf / overall8-12 / 14-18TierLong ShotRange6–12
- 10UC RiversideRiverside replaced two high-usage stars with a long, multi-creator committee that may become better than the sum of its transfers.Conf / overall7-13 / 13-19TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–121 spot lower than published model · #910Official rankUC RiversideRiverside replaced two high-usage stars with a long, multi-creator committee that may become better than the sum of its transfers.1 spot lower than published model · #9Conf / overall7-13 / 13-19TierLong ShotRange6–12
- 11Cal St. FullertonThe reigning Coach of the Year reloaded with three lower-division stars, making eleventh look more like a chemistry warning than a talent verdict.Conf / overall6-14 / 12-20TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–125 spots lower than published model · #611Official rankCal St. FullertonThe reigning Coach of the Year reloaded with three lower-division stars, making eleventh look more like a chemistry warning than a talent verdict.5 spots lower than published model · #6Conf / overall6-14 / 12-20TierLong ShotRange6–12
- 12Long Beach St.Thirteen newcomers give the last-place pick far more creation, shooting and size than its total reset initially suggests.Conf / overall5-15 / 11-21TierLong ShotCeiling / floor7–121 spot lower than published model · #1112Official rankLong Beach St.Thirteen newcomers give the last-place pick far more creation, shooting and size than its total reset initially suggests.1 spot lower than published model · #11Conf / overall5-15 / 11-21TierLong ShotRange7–12
The interactive scouting room
Team-by-team preview
Move across the conference one program at a time. Open projected rotations, meet the players, and inspect the identity and postseason case behind every ranking.
2026-27 team preview · official rank 1
UC San Diego
Conference
16-4
Overall
24-8
Finish window
1–3
Confidence
82%
Official order · choose a team file
Projected rotation · Published roster depth chart
10 of 10 primary spots filled
Five on the floor
The All-Conference court
Explore all three projected teams. Select a player for the spotlight, then choose Open Player Card for their full profile.
The basket is on the upper baseline. Guards are positioned around the lower three-point perimeter, while forwards and centers are positioned in the upper lane and around the rim.
The hardware
The awards race
Browse every projected award race. See the current favorite, the strongest challengers, and the case for each pick.
The projected podium
Player of the Year
Why this pick leads
Hamad Mousa's returning 20.4-point baseline and efficient high-volume shooting narrowly separate him from Josiah Davis' superior playmaking and Tom Beattie's broader two-way impact.
How strongly the current projection favors this pick. These are not betting odds.
Beyond the main ballot
The extra pages
Meet the players outside our All-Conference and award picks who could still shape the race, then explore breakout candidates and bold predictions.
Five players who can move the race
Race Shapers
These five sit outside the projected honor teams but hold outsized influence over the standings.
Tyson Dunn
UCSDG · P-GrThe missing organizer
Tyson Dunn Reopens the Playbook
Dunn missed all of last season, but his previous 12.4-point, 5.3-assist Buffalo season gives UC San Diego a seasoned organizer who can unlock its deep shooting corps.
76% confident
Antonio Chol
UCSBF · R-SrSize meets skill
Antonio Chol Stretches the Frontcourt
Chol's 60 made threes at New Mexico let UCSB pair him with Eric Dibami without shrinking the floor, a lineup answer that could decide the favorite's closest matchups.
73% confident
Ridvan Tutic
Sac St.C · SrPaint pressure
Ridvan Tutic Makes the Guards Better
Tutic's 7.8 rebounds per game give Sacramento State a screen-and-rebound center who can turn its collection of scorers into a balanced offense.
70% confident
Elijah Chol
UC IrvineC · R-SrThe interior test
Elijah Chol Owns the Vacancy
UC Irvine lost Kyle Evans' record-setting rim protection, so Chol's ability to sustain starter minutes will determine whether the Anteaters remain elite defensively.
68% confident
Kjay Bradley Jr.
CSUBG · R-SrA new first option
Kjay Bradley Takes the Clock
Bakersfield needs late-clock creation after losing Dailin Smith and CJ Hardy; Bradley's handle and scoring profile give the rebuild a plausible possession-ending guard.
66% confident
Five players ready for larger roles
Breakout Team
The Breakout Five
Established skills and newly available minutes create the league's clearest growth bets.
CJ Shaw
UCSBG · SoVolume without waste
CJ Shaw Becomes a Primary Scorer
Shaw's 43.2 percent three-point shooting and 66.2 true-shooting mark support a major usage increase beside Miro Little.
81% confident
Jovan Jester Jr.
UC IrvineG · R-SoFrom reserve to centerpiece
Jovan Jester Jr. Doubles His Output
Jester averaged 6.5 points in 16 minutes with 1.5 steals; a starting role can turn that disruptive efficiency into all-league production.
79% confident
Alex Chaikin
UCSDG · JrThe next shot creator
Alex Chaikin Converts the Extra Attention
Chaikin already made 39.4 percent on 193 threes, and UC San Diego's added ballhandlers should create cleaner attacks against hard closeouts.
75% confident
De'Undrae Perteete
UC RiversideG · JrA larger workload
De'Undrae Perteete Takes Control
Perteete's 40.8 percent shooting from deep and 2.4 assists provide the foundation for a jump from connector to lead guard.
72% confident
Christian Williams
Cal St. FullertonG · SoTwo-way sophomore
Christian Williams Leads the Reset
Williams made 64 threes and collected 65 steals as a freshman, giving Fullerton a credible breakout candidate on both ends.
69% confident
Three calls with real stakes
Bold Predictions
Specific outcomes that would redraw the Big West race.
Seventh Is Way Too Low
Cal Poly Crashes the Top Three and Mousa Wins Player of the Year
Cal Poly finishes above at least two of the preseason top four, and Hamad Mousa turns that jump into Player of the Year. Mousa led the league at 20.4 points, Cayden Ward returns 14.5 points and 6.3 rebounds, and most of an offense that averaged 82.1 points and 10.8 threes is back. The obvious rebuttal is an 85.0-point defense. This bets that merely average resistance, not a transformation, lets the league’s best returning scorer overwhelm a conference of remade rotations.
Confidence · 62%
Championship Hangover
The Champs Start on Wednesday
UC Irvine finishes sixth or lower, forcing the defending regular-season champion into Wednesday’s opening round. The Anteaters lost Jurian Dixon, Kyle Evans, Derin Saran and Andre Henry, a quartet that supplied 49.3 points per game, while Evans erased a Big West-record 115 shots. Nils Cooper, Jovan Jester and 7-foot-9 Olivier Rioux make the rebuild fascinating, but none has yet been a Division I closer. Three regular-season titles in four years make this prediction uncomfortable; replacing both late-clock scoring and a championship defense makes it plausible.
Confidence · 58%
New Kid, New Champion
Utah Valley Wins the Big West Tournament in Year One
Projected fifth, Utah Valley takes the automatic bid in its first Big West season. Todd Phillips brings consecutive WAC regular-season titles and back-to-back tournament finals, while Isaac Davis and Isaac Hawkins preserve an efficient, rim-protecting interior spine. The guards are less proven, but in a league rebuilding nearly every backcourt, UVU’s championship habits survive Henderson.
Confidence · 53%
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