Horizon
Love at First Place
Ace Valentine gives Robert Morris an efficient lead guard, while Kellen Pickett lets Wright State rebuild from the inside out. Their contrasting roles put ball-screen control against frontcourt versatility at the top of the race.
The cover line
Green Bay widens the race through Marcus Hall's shooting and Jaxon Edwards' versatility, while Milwaukee asks Danilo Jovanovich to organize a rebuilt offense from the frontcourt. Both can punish defenses that overload the league's lead guards.
Projected champion
Robert Morris
The team to beat on our official board
Dark horse
Green Bay
The team most likely to break the bracket
Projected NCAA bids
1
A deep race offers several upset threats but no proven national heavyweight.
Chaos rating
89 / 100
How likely the board is to get weird
The quick read
Conference superlatives
The opening tip
Built From the Last Block Up
Expect spread ball screens, interchangeable wings and aggressive help, with the race turning on which rebuilt backcourt can protect the ball without sacrificing pace.
Half a second separated Wright State from overtime in last March’s Horizon championship game. Orlando Lovejoy reached the rim, Kellen Pickett met him there, and the freshman’s block finished a 66 to 63 win over Detroit Mercy that gave the Raiders both league crowns. That play frames the new race. Wright State lost TJ Burch, Michael Cooper, Solomon Callaghan and Michael Imariagbe, four players who each averaged double figures and supplied most of its creation. Pickett remains after averaging 8.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. The champion must rebuild from its best defensive possession outward. Robert Morris is our pick to pass the champ because Andrew Toole found pieces whose jobs connect. The Colonials lost Horizon Player of the Year DeSean Goode, Ryan Prather Jr. and Nikolaos Chitikoudis, their three leading scorers. Ace Valentine arrives from UMBC after averaging 11.9 points and 3.9 assists while shooting 50.6 percent. Darius Livingston Jr. made 38.4 percent of his threes, and Jalik Dunkley brings 12.4 points and 6.7 rebounds. Valentine runs the ball screen, Livingston punishes help and Dunkley attacks the space they create. That hierarchy gives Robert Morris the cleanest answer to a 42 point hole. Wright State’s counter begins inside. Pickett can screen, short roll and erase mistakes, while Green Bay transfer C.J. O’Hara brings a 14.1 point scoring baseline to the wing. Green Bay, Milwaukee and Purdue Fort Wayne each offer a different answer. Marcus Hall gives the Phoenix a 40.6 percent shooter and Jaxon Edwards adds switchable size. Milwaukee gets Danilo Jovanovich back after a January injury ended a breakout season of 12.4 points and 6.1 rebounds on 59.5 percent shooting. Purdue Fort Wayne still has DeAndre Craig, who averaged 14.0 points, but a new frontcourt must hold up behind him. Northern Illinois makes the league twelve teams deep and supplies its strangest experiment. New coach Matt Majkrzak signed 14 players, including Uzziah Buntyn, who averaged 12.1 points and 3.5 assists at South Dakota. The Huskies can wreck somebody’s seeding while learning unfamiliar opponents. Detroit Mercy’s leap from one win in 32 games in 2024 to one possession from last year’s NCAA bid already showed how quickly this league turns. Robert Morris holds the Ace. Wright State still has the Pickett who closed the last title game. Everyone behind them has reason to believe the next answer can be theirs.
The defining storylineCan Wright State create dependable late-clock offense around Kellen Pickett after losing four double-figure scorers?
Official projection + model comparison
The big board
See how every team stacks up through projected records, finish ranges, and the model’s view of the race.
Ranking machine · comparison at a glance
Editorial board vs. model
Teams are ordered by the official Shooty Hoops editorial rank.
- 1Robert MorrisProven creation, volume shooting and real rim protection give Robert Morris the league's widest margin for error.Conf / overall17-5 / 22-9TierFavoriteCeiling / floor1–4Boards agree · #11Official rankRobert MorrisProven creation, volume shooting and real rim protection give Robert Morris the league's widest margin for error.Boards agree · #1Conf / overall17-5 / 22-9TierFavoriteRange1–4
- 2Wright St.Pickett's two-way frontcourt certainty keeps the defending champion near the top while Traylor learns the lead-guard job.Conf / overall16-6 / 21-10TierContenderCeiling / floor1–5Boards agree · #22Official rankWright St.Pickett's two-way frontcourt certainty keeps the defending champion near the top while Traylor learns the lead-guard job.Boards agree · #2Conf / overall16-6 / 21-10TierContenderRange1–5
- 3Green BayElite wing shooting and switchable scoring give Green Bay a top-three ceiling, while guard and center depth set the floor.Conf / overall15-7 / 20-11TierContenderCeiling / floor1–7Boards agree · #33Official rankGreen BayElite wing shooting and switchable scoring give Green Bay a top-three ceiling, while guard and center depth set the floor.Boards agree · #3Conf / overall15-7 / 20-11TierContenderRange1–7
- 4MilwaukeeJovanovich can connect Milwaukee's offense from elbow to rim; unproven perimeter scoring keeps the Panthers fourth.Conf / overall14-8 / 19-12TierContenderCeiling / floor2–81 spot higher than published model · #54Official rankMilwaukeeJovanovich can connect Milwaukee's offense from elbow to rim; unproven perimeter scoring keeps the Panthers fourth.1 spot higher than published model · #5Conf / overall14-8 / 19-12TierContenderRange2–8
- 5PFWCraig's shot-making and Isaac's rebounding keep PFW dangerous while an untested center rotation learns under pressure.Conf / overall13-9 / 18-13TierContenderCeiling / floor2–81 spot lower than published model · #45Official rankPFWCraig's shot-making and Isaac's rebounding keep PFW dangerous while an untested center rotation learns under pressure.1 spot lower than published model · #4Conf / overall13-9 / 18-13TierContenderRange2–8
- 6Northern Ky.Pagotto's stretch passing and Shortt's rim work give Northern Kentucky a frontcourt plan; late-clock creation is still missing.Conf / overall11-11 / 16-15TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–103 spots higher than published model · #96Official rankNorthern Ky.Pagotto's stretch passing and Shortt's rim work give Northern Kentucky a frontcourt plan; late-clock creation is still missing.3 spots higher than published model · #9Conf / overall11-11 / 16-15TierDangerous MiddleRange3–10
- 7Detroit MercySpratt's movement shooting and Carter's downhill burst give Detroit a scoring base; Lovejoy's decision-making still needs a successor.Conf / overall10-12 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–111 spot higher than published model · #87Official rankDetroit MercySpratt's movement shooting and Carter's downhill burst give Detroit a scoring base; Lovejoy's decision-making still needs a successor.1 spot higher than published model · #8Conf / overall10-12 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleRange3–11
- 8OaklandGreg Kampe rebuilt the paint first, leaving the backcourt to determine how quickly Oakland can climb.Conf / overall9-13 / 14-17TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor4–111 spot lower than published model · #78Official rankOaklandGreg Kampe rebuilt the paint first, leaving the backcourt to determine how quickly Oakland can climb.1 spot lower than published model · #7Conf / overall9-13 / 14-17TierDangerous MiddleRange4–11
- 9NIUBuntyn's ball-screen command and Samuels' rebounding give the Horizon's new member a credible first-year spoiler profile.Conf / overall8-14 / 13-18TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor4–123 spots lower than published model · #69Official rankNIUBuntyn's ball-screen command and Samuels' rebounding give the Horizon's new member a credible first-year spoiler profile.3 spots lower than published model · #6Conf / overall8-14 / 13-18TierDangerous MiddleRange4–12
- 10Cleveland St.Vorst's screening and Bronston's shooting create a usable half-court base, but Cleveland State still lacks a proven closer.Conf / overall7-15 / 12-19TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–121 spot higher than published model · #1110Official rankCleveland St.Vorst's screening and Bronston's shooting create a usable half-court base, but Cleveland State still lacks a proven closer.1 spot higher than published model · #11Conf / overall7-15 / 12-19TierLong ShotRange6–12
- 11Youngstown St.Holmstrom and Tyler can ignite shootouts, while an unproven interior leaves Youngstown State vulnerable to physical teams.Conf / overall6-16 / 11-20TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–121 spot higher than published model · #1211Official rankYoungstown St.Holmstrom and Tyler can ignite shootouts, while an unproven interior leaves Youngstown State vulnerable to physical teams.1 spot higher than published model · #12Conf / overall6-16 / 11-20TierLong ShotRange6–12
- 12IU IndyCurtin's downhill scoring and Tinsley's stretch game lift the offense, while a rebuilt frontcourt sets a low defensive floor.Conf / overall5-17 / 9-22TierLong ShotCeiling / floor7–122 spots lower than published model · #1012Official rankIU IndyCurtin's downhill scoring and Tinsley's stretch game lift the offense, while a rebuilt frontcourt sets a low defensive floor.2 spots lower than published model · #10Conf / overall5-17 / 9-22TierLong ShotRange7–12
The interactive scouting room
Team-by-team preview
Move across the conference one program at a time. Open projected rotations, meet the players, and inspect the identity and postseason case behind every ranking.
2026-27 team preview · official rank 1
Robert Morris
Conference
17-5
Overall
22-9
Finish window
1–4
Confidence
75%
Official order · choose a team file
Projected rotation · Published roster depth chart
10 of 10 primary spots filled
Five on the floor
The All-Conference court
Explore all three projected teams. Select a player for the spotlight, then choose Open Player Card for their full profile.
The basket is on the upper baseline. Guards are positioned around the lower three-point perimeter, while forwards and centers are positioned in the upper lane and around the rim.
The hardware
The awards race
Browse every projected award race. See the current favorite, the strongest challengers, and the case for each pick.
The projected podium
Player of the Year
Why this pick leads
Valentine owns the best blend of efficient scoring, passing and projected team success. Craig has more returning league production, while Hall is the superior shooter.
How strongly the current projection favors this pick. These are not betting odds.
Beyond the main ballot
The extra pages
Meet the players outside our All-Conference and award picks who could still shape the race, then explore breakout candidates and bold predictions.
Five players who can tilt the order
Race Shapers
They missed the honor teams, but each controls a pressure point in the race.
Ta'Zir Smith
Robert MorrisG · R-JrSecond-side creator
Ta'Zir Smith steadies the favorite
Smith can defend either guard spot and organize bench units, reducing the creation burden on Valentine.
73% confident
Brady Swartz
OaklandG · SoMinutes meet shooting
Swartz averaged 7.7 points and 4.6 rebounds as a freshman starter, and his size fits Oakland's physical frontcourt.
70% confident
Ethan Elliott
Northern Ky.G · SoPossession manager
Ethan Elliott controls the rebuild
Elliott averaged 4.6 assists, but better finishing is required to stop opponents from ducking under screens.
65% confident
Lance Stone
Detroit MercyG · SoBench shot-maker
Lance Stone changes Detroit's pace
Stone gives Detroit Mercy a second organizer when opponents overload Spratt and deny his catches.
66% confident
Jeff Nwankwo
Youngstown St.F · GrPower wing
Jeff Nwankwo raises Youngstown's ceiling
Nwankwo's junior-college scoring background gives Youngstown State a plausible source of badly needed rim pressure.
69% confident
The next tier of stars
Breakout Team
Five players with a credible baseline and a clear route to greater influence.
Darius Livingston Jr.
Robert MorrisG · SoBigger role, same touch
Livingston made 39.4 percent of 155 threes; more on-ball work could make him Robert Morris' second creator.
76% confident
Kellen Pickett
Wright St.F · SoTwo-way leap
More post touches and short-roll decisions could turn an efficient rim protector into the league's best big.
77% confident
Tyler Spratt
Detroit MercyG · R-SoVolume arrives
Spratt must preserve his shooting efficiency while facing harder closeouts and primary-scorer attention.
72% confident
Danilo Jovanovich
MilwaukeeF · GrFrontcourt playmaker
Danilo Jovanovich unlocks Milwaukee
Jovanovich's passing can turn cuts, handoffs and short rolls into efficient offense for a rebuilt perimeter group.
70% confident
Kameron Tinsley
IU IndyF · JrExpanded wing role
Tinsley scored 7.9 points in 17.5 minutes; steadier defense could keep that offense on the floor.
68% confident
Three calls with consequences
Bold Predictions
Specific outcomes that would reshape the Horizon conversation.
Fourth to first
Milwaukee wins the Horizon tournament
Jovanovich's elbow game gives Milwaukee a tournament-proof half-court answer, while Norman and Dorceus find enough perimeter scoring for the projected fourth-place Panthers to take the automatic bid.
Confidence · 57%
The new neighbor
NIU finishes in the top six in its Horizon debut
Majkrzak's low-turnover offense transfers immediately: Buntyn steadies the ball, Samuels connects the frontcourt and the ninth-place pick climbs past Northern Kentucky, Detroit and Oakland.
Confidence · 54%
O'Hara takes over
C.J. O'Hara wins Horizon Player of the Year
O'Hara keeps his 57-percent shooting efficiency as his usage grows, becomes Wright State's primary perimeter scorer and beats out Valentine, Craig and Hall for the award.
Confidence · 51%
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