
MAC
The preseason issueThe race. The rosters. The picks.
MIAMI RAN THE TABLE. AKRON RAN CLEVELAND.
One perfect regular season and one third straight tournament title gave the MAC its first two-bid NCAA field since 1999. Now both powers must rebuild while Western Michigan and Ohio chase the encore.
Projected champion
The team to beat on our official board
Dark horse
A threat to break the bracket
Projected NCAA bids
Fresh off its first two-bid field since 1999, the MAC has several dangerous teams and another credible March race.
Chaos rating
How unpredictable is this race?
The quick read
Conference superlatives
The opening tip
THE MAC HAS A HARD ACT TO FOLLOW
Last season revealed two paths to MAC power: Miami's spacing and decision-making conquered the schedule, while Akron's physical depth conquered Cleveland. The next champion may need pieces of both.
The MAC spent 27 years waiting for a second NCAA invitation. Last March, Miami and Akron reached the bracket by taking opposite roads. Miami won every regular-season game, claimed the league's first at-large bid since 1999 and beat SMU in the First Four. Akron lost once in conference play, then erased a 12-point halftime deficit against Toledo to win a third consecutive tournament title. Miami owned the calendar. Akron owned Cleveland. That is the standard for 2026-27, although neither program can simply run last year's plan again. Miami lost Peter Suder, Brant Byers and Eian Elmer, a trio that supplied 41.7 points per game and 181 threes. Travis Steele still has the league's cleanest returning framework. Luke Skaljac averaged 4.7 assists with a 2.57 assist-to-turnover ratio. Almar Atlason made 60 threes, and Evan Ipsaro scored 13.9 per game before a knee injury ended his season in December. Miami says Ipsaro will return, giving Skaljac another handler who can turn an advantage into a paint touch. Rich Rolf and Stevie Elam bring more passing and shooting, while Antwone Woolfolk provides the interior finishing and rebounding that keeps small lineups honest. Miami will not shoot 51.8 percent by inheritance, but it can still make defenses guard every part of the floor. Akron's reset reaches the bench as well as the lineup. John Groce left after the three-peat, and longtime associate head coach Dustin Ford moved one chair over after nine years in the program. Tavari Johnson, Amani Lyles and Shammah Scott are gone after combining for 47.5 points. Ford's best returning piece is Evan Mahaffey, a 6-foot-6 connector who averaged 10.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.7 steals. Tahj Staveskie arrives with a 17.3-point, 4.1-assist season at Incarnate Word, and Ty Pence adds size and shooting on the wing. The roster still looks like an Akron team, with interchangeable forwards and enough shooting to play five-out. Its March calm must be rebuilt around a new closer. Western Michigan has the boldest answer to the two favorites. Kahil Fennell took over after turning UTRGV into a 19-win team that shot 47.4 percent and held opponents to 30.3 percent from three. He inherited no returning players, so the Broncos are trying to install a system and a roster at the same time. Jaylen Washington followed Fennell from UTRGV after posting 4.2 assists with a 2.85 assist-to-turnover ratio. Rob Lee Jr. scored 16.2 per game at Lamar, while Julien Gomez and Tanner Hayhurst give the backcourt two proven high-level shooters. Augustinas Kiudulas brings needed scoring and rebounding inside. There is enough creation to win the league. The harder work will be defensive communication and frontcourt rebounding when 14 newcomers meet conference scouting for the first time. Ohio offers the most volatile case. Javan Simmons is a proven 15-point interior scorer, Kyler D'Augustino brings 18.5 points per game from IU Indianapolis, and Kolton Mitchell adds another experienced handler. The Bobcats were outshot, outrebounded and outscored last season, so adding offense alone will not fix them. Jackson Paveletzke's fifth-season case could still rearrange the race. The 17.3-point, 5.3-assist guard is not on Ohio's current official roster while his eligibility remains unresolved. Miami has announced Woolfolk's fifth-year return and Akron lists Mahaffey as a fifth-year player, though both remain connected to ongoing 5-for-5 litigation. Those rulings deserve a footnote now and could demand a rewrite later. Kent State and Ball State make the middle dangerous for different reasons. Kent lost its five leading scorers but signed Chansey Willis Jr., who once led the MAC in scoring and assists at Western Michigan. His return from foot surgery gives Rob Senderoff a genuine first option if his burst is back. Ball State's new coach, Chris Capko, imported Zaon Collins, Sean Blake and K'Jei Parker to repair an offense that averaged 67.5 points and shot 31.7 percent from three. Toledo retains Austin Parks as a 6-foot-10 screening and finishing hub. UMass already supplied the league's warning label by knocking 31-0 Miami out of the MAC tournament after being swept in the regular season. Last year changed what a successful MAC season can look like. It also exposed how different the regular-season and Cleveland exams can be. Miami returns the clearest plan for five months of league play. Akron returns the institutional memory of three straight tournament runs. Western Michigan has enough shooting to interrupt the sequel, and Ohio can become a title threat with one eligibility ruling. The MAC finally earned two tickets last March. Its encore will be decided by which contender can build a new team without losing the thing that made the old one special.
The defining storylineThe MAC just sent two teams to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1999. Miami and Akron now rebuild the engines that got them there while Western Michigan, Ohio and Kent State press into the opening.
Official projection + model comparison
The big board
Projected records, finish ranges, and two views of the race. Switch boards to compare our picks with the model.
Ranking machine · comparison at a glance
Editorial board vs. model
Teams are ordered by the official Shooty Hoops editorial rank.
- 1Miami OHThe league's safest returning spine survived a massive scoring drain, keeping Miami first while its new wings prove they can sustain last year's spacing.Conf / overall14-4 / 22-9TierFavoriteCeiling / floor1–4Same rank · #11Official rankMiami OHThe league's safest returning spine survived a massive scoring drain, keeping Miami first while its new wings prove they can sustain last year's spacing.Same rank · #1Conf / overall14-4 / 22-9TierFavoriteRange1–4
- 2AkronThree straight Cleveland trophies preserve Akron's benefit of the doubt, but a new coach, lead guard and interior make this the hardest encore.Conf / overall13-5 / 21-10TierContenderCeiling / floor1–61 vs model #32Official rankAkronThree straight Cleveland trophies preserve Akron's benefit of the doubt, but a new coach, lead guard and interior make this the hardest encore.1 vs model #3Conf / overall13-5 / 21-10TierContenderRange1–6
- 3Western Mich.Fennell imported shooting and two proven creators; whether an entirely new rotation can rebound and defend together decides if the talent becomes a title team.Conf / overall12-6 / 20-11TierContenderCeiling / floor1–81 vs model #23Official rankWestern Mich.Fennell imported shooting and two proven creators; whether an entirely new rotation can rebound and defend together decides if the talent becomes a title team.1 vs model #2Conf / overall12-6 / 20-11TierContenderRange1–8
- 4OhioSimmons now has enough proven ballhandling and shooting around him to chase the top four, with interior defense still the pressure point.Conf / overall11-7 / 19-12TierContenderCeiling / floor1–81 vs model #54Official rankOhioSimmons now has enough proven ballhandling and shooting around him to chase the top four, with interior defense still the pressure point.1 vs model #5Conf / overall11-7 / 19-12TierContenderRange1–8
- 5Kent St.Willis gives Kent a proven MAC conductor and Woidke supplies shooting, but an almost entirely rebuilt frontcourt must replace elite rebounding.Conf / overall10-8 / 18-13TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–92 vs model #75Official rankKent St.Willis gives Kent a proven MAC conductor and Woidke supplies shooting, but an almost entirely rebuilt frontcourt must replace elite rebounding.2 vs model #7Conf / overall10-8 / 18-13TierDangerous MiddleRange3–9
- 6Ball St.Capko imported a shooting-heavy veteran backcourt for year one; the Cardinals' leap depends on an unproven frontcourt holding up.Conf / overall10-8 / 17-14TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–10Same rank · #66Official rankBall St.Capko imported a shooting-heavy veteran backcourt for year one; the Cardinals' leap depends on an unproven frontcourt holding up.Same rank · #6Conf / overall10-8 / 17-14TierDangerous MiddleRange3–10
- 7ToledoLast year's MAC finalist replaces its star backcourt with Montas, Sean Jones and Barron while Austin Parks anchors an older, more physical remake.Conf / overall9-9 / 16-15TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor4–113 vs model #107Official rankToledoLast year's MAC finalist replaces its star backcourt with Montas, Sean Jones and Barron while Austin Parks anchors an older, more physical remake.3 vs model #10Conf / overall9-9 / 16-15TierDangerous MiddleRange4–11
- 8BuffaloBuffalo traded perimeter fireworks for a Tennessee State-tested frontcourt and several veteran ballhandlers; finding a closer will determine the ceiling.Conf / overall8-10 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor4–11Same rank · #88Official rankBuffaloBuffalo traded perimeter fireworks for a Tennessee State-tested frontcourt and several veteran ballhandlers; finding a closer will determine the ceiling.Same rank · #8Conf / overall8-10 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleRange4–11
- 9Bowling GreenTodd Simon replaced the MAC's best disruptor with four proven scorers; the Falcons rise only if Essandoko and Beckford make the new backcourt defensible.Conf / overall7-11 / 14-17TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor5–12Same rank · #99Official rankBowling GreenTodd Simon replaced the MAC's best disruptor with four proven scorers; the Falcons rise only if Essandoko and Beckford make the new backcourt defensible.Same rank · #9Conf / overall7-11 / 14-17TierDangerous MiddleRange5–12
- 10Eastern Mich.Habhab stayed to anchor Billy Donlon's pressure-heavy reset; Eastern's climb depends on whether its veteran new backcourt creates enough space around him.Conf / overall6-12 / 13-18TierLong ShotCeiling / floor4–126 vs model #410Official rankEastern Mich.Habhab stayed to anchor Billy Donlon's pressure-heavy reset; Eastern's climb depends on whether its veteran new backcourt creates enough space around him.6 vs model #4Conf / overall6-12 / 13-18TierLong ShotRange4–12
- 11UMassThe guards who organized last March's Miami shocker return, but UMass must turn three complementary transfers into an answer for 56.8 departed points.Conf / overall5-13 / 12-19TierLong ShotCeiling / floor7–12Same rank · #1111Official rankUMassThe guards who organized last March's Miami shocker return, but UMass must turn three complementary transfers into an answer for 56.8 departed points.Same rank · #11Conf / overall5-13 / 12-19TierLong ShotRange7–12
- 12Central Mich.Bronkema attacked last year's shooting and rebounding problems with an NJCAA sniper and two productive centers; their translation decides whether Central escapes last.Conf / overall4-14 / 11-20TierLong ShotCeiling / floor8–12Same rank · #1212Official rankCentral Mich.Bronkema attacked last year's shooting and rebounding problems with an NJCAA sniper and two productive centers; their translation decides whether Central escapes last.Same rank · #12Conf / overall4-14 / 11-20TierLong ShotRange8–12
The scouting room
Team-by-team preview
Pick a program to explore its outlook, projected rotation, and players to know.
2026-27 team preview · official rank 1
Miami (OH)
Conference
14-4
Overall
22-9
Finish window
1–4
Confidence
76%
Official order · choose a team file
Projected rotation · Published roster depth chart
10 of 10 primary spots filled
Five on the floor
The All-Conference court
Explore all three projected teams. Select a player for the spotlight and open their full profile.
The basket is on the upper baseline. Guards are positioned around the lower three-point perimeter, while forwards and centers are positioned in the upper lane and around the rim.
The hardware
The awards race
The favorites, the challengers, and the case behind every pick.
The projected podium
Player of the Year
Why this pick leads
Mahaffey's defense, playmaking and rebounding give him the widest impact, narrowly separating him from Skaljac's creation and Paveletzke's superior scoring volume.
How strongly the current projection favors this pick. These are not betting odds.
Beyond the main ballot
The extra pages
Breakout candidates, bold predictions, and other players who could shape the race.
Five players who can bend the standings
Race Shapers
The Possessions That Move the MAC
These players sit outside the honor ballots but own roles that can change the race.

Rich Rolf
Miami OHF · GrSpacing hinge
Rich Rolf Changes Miami's Geometry
His 36.8 percent shooting and passing from the four can keep help defenders away from Miami's guards.
76% confident
Isaac Finlinson
Western Mich.F · SrInterior answer
Isaac Finlinson Must Hold the Middle
Western Michigan's guard talent becomes title-level only if Finlinson's strength and 39.1 percent shooting survive bigger matchups.
72% confident
Sean Jones
ToledoG · R-JrBackcourt bridge
Sean Jones Sets Toledo's Pace
Jones must turn ball pressure and passing into stable possessions for a lineup replacing two elite creators.
70% confident
Jayden Ndjigue
UMassG · SrRebounding test
Jayden Ndjigue Guards the Margin
His 5.4 rebounds and 1.2 steals can give UMass extra possessions while its new frontcourt settles.
71% confident
Sencire Harris
Eastern Mich.G · SRPoint-of-attack
Sencire Harris Makes It Uncomfortable
Harris can turn Eastern Michigan's veteran lineup into a pressure defense if his offense keeps him on the floor.
69% confident
Five growth bets
Breakout Team
The Next Step
Each candidate owns a credible baseline and a clear mechanism for more production.

Evan Ipsaro
Miami OHG · SrExpanded scorer
Evan Ipsaro Takes the Last Shot
Ipsaro averaged 13.9 points in 12 games and now has room to become Miami's primary closer.
75% confident
Quinn Woidke
Kent St.G · SoStarter's volume
Quinn Woidke Gets the Green Light
A 40.4 percent three-point shooter moves from sixth man to featured spacer in Kent State's rebuilt backcourt.
77% confident
Mynor Strong
ToledoG · JrTwo-way leap
Mynor Strong Becomes a Stopper
Strong's steal rate and free-throw touch offer a plausible route from supporting guard to dependable two-way starter.
70% confident
Dezmon Briscoe
Kent St.F · SoFrontcourt growth
Dezmon Briscoe Owns the Glass
His 2.1 rebounds and 0.7 blocks in only 8.6 minutes point to scalable interior activity.
68% confident
Will James Jr.
ToledoG · SoRole expansion
Will James Jr. Stabilizes Toledo
James shot 51.2 percent in a small role and can earn closing minutes through low-mistake play.
67% confident
Three calls worth remembering
Bold Predictions
Beyond the Safe Picks
Concrete outcomes that test the central assumptions behind this projection.
Same table, new cast
Miami Wins the MAC Regular Season Again
The roster is less overwhelming, but Skaljac, Ipsaro and Woolfolk give the RedHawks the league's steadiest spine across four months.
Confidence · 66%
Dark horse in Cleveland
Western Michigan Wins the MAC Tournament
Kahil Fennell's rebuilt backcourt gives the Broncos multiple creators and enough shooting to solve three different matchups in Cleveland.
Confidence · 48%
Two statistical crowns
Ohio Leads the MAC in Scoring. Buffalo Leads It in Defense.
Ohio's depth of creators powers the MAC's highest-scoring attack, while Buffalo's length, physical forwards and rebounding produce its stingiest defense.
Confidence · 54%
Your turn on the record
Build your conference ballot
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Build your own board
Rank the league, draw your tiers, name fifteen All-Conference players, and hand out the hardware. Your draft stays on this device until you choose to publish it. You can return to the same link to edit and resubmit later.
Checking for a local draft
The crowd’s ballot
Community consensus
See where fan ballots agree, where opinions split, and how the crowd compares with Shooty Hoops.
Counting the room
Building the current community board…
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