Mountain West 2026-27 Preview

The opening tip

The Peak Is Under New Management

Grand Canyon can play fast with waves of scorers. New Mexico can bury a defense in movement and shooting. Nevada can make every possession a fight around Elijah Price. The title race starts with three distinct identities and no established ruler.

Utah State left the trophy behind when it joined the Pac-12. San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State followed, taking most of the names that defined the Mountain West’s recent run of NCAA bids. Hawai‘i, UC Davis and UTEP walked into the opening. The result is a 10-team league with a vacant throne and no inherited pecking order. This season will introduce a new conference as much as it crowns a champion. Grand Canyon gets the first call because Bryce Drew has more credible answers than anyone else. The Lopes went 20-12 and 13-7 in their first Mountain West season, then lost 17.7-point scorer Jaden Henley. Drew responded with a roster designed to spread those possessions around. Makaih Williams already gives GCU an attacking guard who scored 14.0 per game. Dylan Darling brings point-guard order after starting for a St. John’s Sweet 16 team. Jaden Zimmerman and Blake Barkley arrive after carrying much larger offensive roles elsewhere, and 7-foot-1 Efe Demirel gives all of that perimeter depth real size behind it. The question is whether a group full of former featured players can share the floor and improve an offense that made only 31.8 percent of its threes last season. New Mexico has the cleaner answer to the chemistry question because its two best guards grew up together last season. Eric Olen won 26 games with a roster that returned no players or staff. Jake Hall made a school-record 117 threes and scored 16.4 a night; Uriah Tenette averaged 10.6 points and posted a 3.06 assist-to-turnover ratio. Their timing in Olen’s movement offense should be the hardest thing in the league to guard by January. The hole is on the glass. Tomislav Buljan led the Mountain West at 10.3 rebounds per game, and none of the new bigs owns a comparable Division I rebounding résumé. Nevada has the most dependable frontcourt foundation. Elijah Price averaged 12.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.7 blocks, giving Steve Alford a defender who can protect the rim without surrendering the glass. Styles Phipps brings 13.4 points and 5.2 assists from Pepperdine, exactly the kind of organizer Nevada needed beside returning scorers Vaughn Weems and Peyton White. The Wolf Pack can win ugly while its new guards settle, a useful trait in a league where most teams are teaching new roles. UNLV is the wild card. Tyrin Jones led the Mountain West at 2.2 blocks per game, and Josh Pastner added enough size and downhill guard play to support a top-four defense. AJ Storr would give the Rebels a proven high-major closer, but a Tennessee appellate stay currently leaves him ineligible while his fifth-year case continues. Until that changes, UNLV’s offense belongs to the roster Pastner built before Storr arrived. Behind them, Wyoming is the continuity counterweight with Khaden Bennett and Nasir Meyer back after an 18-win season. Hawai‘i arrives with a Big West tournament banner but replaces its top six scorers. UC Davis brings seven returners from a 19-win team into a more physical league, and UTEP starts over with experienced guards around a rebuilt frontcourt. Those teams will decide whether this is a clean three-team race or a weekly ambush. The old Mountain West sold depth to the selection committee. This one has to build that reputation again, and the program that gets there first will define what the league becomes.

The defining storyline
Last season’s champion and four other familiar powers left for the Pac-12. Grand Canyon has the deepest roster, New Mexico has the league’s most dangerous backcourt and Nevada has its best interior anchor. The first champion of this new era gets to define the Mountain West.

Official projection + model comparison

The big board

See how every team stacks up through projected records, finish ranges, and the model’s view of the race.

Ranking machine · comparison at a glance

Editorial board vs. model

1Grand CanyonBryce Drew has the league’s deepest set of answers; better spacing and shared roles would turn that depth into a championship.
Conf / overall14-4 / 23-8TierFavoriteCeiling / floor1–3
Boards agree · #1
1Official rankGrand CanyonBryce Drew has the league’s deepest set of answers; better spacing and shared roles would turn that depth into a championship.Boards agree · #1Conf / overall14-4 / 23-8TierFavoriteRange1–3
2New MexicoThe league’s most dangerous young backcourt puts New Mexico one reliable rebounding solution from the top.
Conf / overall13-5 / 22-9TierContenderCeiling / floor1–4
Boards agree · #2
2Official rankNew MexicoThe league’s most dangerous young backcourt puts New Mexico one reliable rebounding solution from the top.Boards agree · #2Conf / overall13-5 / 22-9TierContenderRange1–4
3NevadaElijah Price gives Nevada the league’s safest interior foundation; the rebuilt guards determine whether third is the floor or the finish.
Conf / overall12-6 / 21-10TierContenderCeiling / floor1–5
Boards agree · #3
3Official rankNevadaElijah Price gives Nevada the league’s safest interior foundation; the rebuilt guards determine whether third is the floor or the finish.Boards agree · #3Conf / overall12-6 / 21-10TierContenderRange1–5
4UNLVTyrin Jones gives UNLV a defensive spine; ten newcomers and one unsettled closer give the Rebels the league’s widest range of outcomes.
Conf / overall11-7 / 20-11TierContenderCeiling / floor2–7
Boards agree · #4
4Official rankUNLVTyrin Jones gives UNLV a defensive spine; ten newcomers and one unsettled closer give the Rebels the league’s widest range of outcomes.Boards agree · #4Conf / overall11-7 / 20-11TierContenderRange2–7
5WyomingFour holdovers from an 18-win NIT team make Wyoming the league’s strongest continuity bet outside the top four.
Conf / overall10-8 / 18-13TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–8
1 spot higher than published model · #6
5Official rankWyomingFour holdovers from an 18-win NIT team make Wyoming the league’s strongest continuity bet outside the top four.1 spot higher than published model · #6Conf / overall10-8 / 18-13TierDangerous MiddleRange3–8
6San Jose St.A rebuilt frontcourt and Joey Chammaa’s attacking game give San José State a path to sixth despite losing a 20-point creator.
Conf / overall9-9 / 16-15TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor4–9
2 spots higher than published model · #8
6Official rankSan Jose St.A rebuilt frontcourt and Joey Chammaa’s attacking game give San José State a path to sixth despite losing a 20-point creator.2 spots higher than published model · #8Conf / overall9-9 / 16-15TierDangerous MiddleRange4–9
7HawaiiThe reigning Big West tournament champion reaches the Mountain West with a new cast, considerable frontcourt size and no settled closer.
Conf / overall8-10 / 16-15TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor4–9
2 spots lower than published model · #5
7Official rankHawaiiThe reigning Big West tournament champion reaches the Mountain West with a new cast, considerable frontcourt size and no settled closer.2 spots lower than published model · #5Conf / overall8-10 / 16-15TierDangerous MiddleRange4–9
8UC DavisSeven returners and elite shooting give UC Davis a sturdy floor; Mountain West size determines how far above eighth it can climb.
Conf / overall6-12 / 13-18TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor5–10
1 spot higher than published model · #9
8Official rankUC DavisSeven returners and elite shooting give UC Davis a sturdy floor; Mountain West size determines how far above eighth it can climb.1 spot higher than published model · #9Conf / overall6-12 / 13-18TierDangerous MiddleRange5–10
9UTEPUTEP’s total reset produced a huge, experienced backcourt; ninth reflects the time required to turn fourteen newcomers into one defense.
Conf / overall4-14 / 11-20TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–10
2 spots lower than published model · #7
9Official rankUTEPUTEP’s total reset produced a huge, experienced backcourt; ninth reflects the time required to turn fourteen newcomers into one defense.2 spots lower than published model · #7Conf / overall4-14 / 11-20TierLong ShotRange6–10
10Air ForceJoe Crispin should make Air Force faster around Sanders and Hobin, but the league’s weakest defense still faces the longest climb.
Conf / overall3-15 / 8-22TierLong ShotCeiling / floor7–10
Boards agree · #10
10Official rankAir ForceJoe Crispin should make Air Force faster around Sanders and Hobin, but the league’s weakest defense still faces the longest climb.Boards agree · #10Conf / overall3-15 / 8-22TierLong ShotRange7–10

The interactive scouting room

Team-by-team preview

Move across the conference one program at a time. Open projected rotations, meet the players, and inspect the identity and postseason case behind every ranking.

2026-27 team preview · official rank 1

Grand Canyon

DeepTransfer-drivenPhysicalGuard-heavy

1/10

Conference

14-4

Overall

23-8

Finish window

1–3

Confidence

79%

Official order · choose a team file

Projected rotation · Published roster depth chart

10 of 10 primary spots filled

Tap any player

Starting five

Second unit

Five on the floor

The All-Conference court

Explore all three projected teams. Select a player for the spotlight, then choose Open Player Card for their full profile.

🥇 First Team

The hardware

The awards race

Browse every projected award race. See the current favorite, the strongest challengers, and the case for each pick.

1 / 7

The projected podium

Player of the Year

Why this pick leads

Jake Hall owns the league's strongest scoring baseline and a proven high-volume three-point weapon. Makaih Williams has the clearest challenger role, while Elijah Price's case depends more heavily on defensive dominance.

Projection confidence72%

How strongly the current projection favors this pick. These are not betting odds.

Beyond the main ballot

The extra pages

Meet the players outside our All-Conference and award picks who could still shape the race, then explore breakout candidates and bold predictions.

The preview desk supplement3 features

Five players who can move the standings

Race Shapers

These non-ballot players hold specific tactical answers that could alter the title chase.

Efe Demirel
Grand CanyonC · So
The paint eraser
Efe Demirel Owns the Restricted Area
Demirel converted 63 percent of his shots and blocked 1.1 attempts per game. If he stays on the floor, Grand Canyon can pressure the perimeter without surrendering the rim.
76% confident
Hudson Mayes
New MexicoG · So
A two-way connector
Hudson Mayes Changes New Mexico's Shape
Mayes brings 11.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and useful secondary passing from a wing spot. His rebounding could let the Lobos play smaller around their young centers.
72% confident
Peter Bandelj
NevadaG · Jr
Spacing beside Price
Peter Bandelj Opens Nevada's Floor
Bandelj averaged 13.0 points and 3.3 assists while making 34.7 percent from three. His shooting determines how much room Elijah Price receives inside.
74% confident
Renars Sondors
WyomingF · Jr
The stretch-big test
Renars Sondors Pulls Centers Outside
Sondors made 44 threes and averaged 10.7 points at ULM. Reliable pick-and-pop shooting would clear driving lanes for Wyoming's returning guards.
69% confident
Scotty Middleton
San Jose St.G · Sr
Wing balance
Scotty Middleton Connects the Spartans
Middleton shot 36.9 percent from three and blocked 0.8 shots per game at Tulane. That combination gives San José State a needed bridge between its small guards and veteran frontcourt.
67% confident

Growth with a mechanism

Breakout Team

The Breakout Five

Each candidate owns a credible baseline and a clear route to a larger role.

Uriah Tenette
New MexicoG · So
From reserve to organizer
Uriah Tenette Takes the Keys
Tenette averaged 10.6 points and 2.9 assists in only eight starts. A full season beside Jake Hall should create cleaner driving gaps and more transition chances.
81% confident
Nasir Meyer
WyomingF · So
The sophomore scorer
Nasir Meyer Becomes Wyoming's Closer
Meyer already scored 12.9 points per game and created a late-game winner against Air Force. More late-clock possessions can push him toward all-league production.
78% confident
Tyrin Jones
UNLVF · So
More than a shot blocker
Tyrin Jones Expands His Range
Jones paired 11.9 points with a league-leading 2.2 blocks as a freshman. Better free-throw conversion and short-roll passing would make him much harder to scheme against.
79% confident
Kam Sanders
Air ForceG · So
Decision-making leap
Kam Sanders Converts Volume Into Control
Sanders produced 12.5 points and 3.8 assists under heavy usage. Fewer empty possessions would transform Air Force's most talented creator into a dependable lead guard.
73% confident
Jalen Stokes
UC DavisG · So
Bigger wing minutes
Jalen Stokes Claims a Larger Role
Stokes shot 44.8 percent in limited action and brings needed size to UC Davis' guard rotation. More minutes could give the Aggies a downhill counter to their shooting-heavy offense.
64% confident

Three testable calls

Bold Predictions

Shooty Hoops Goes Out on a Limb

Specific outcomes with enough evidence to be plausible and enough risk to be bold.

The Lobos take the throne
New Mexico Wins the Regular-Season Title
Jake Hall and Uriah Tenette enter year two together in Eric Olen’s movement offense, giving New Mexico the league’s best combination of shooting, creation and backcourt continuity. The rebuilt frontcourt does just enough on the glass for the Lobos to finish first.
Confidence · 58%
The Pack owns March
Nevada Wins the Mountain West Tournament
Elijah Price gives Nevada the league’s most dependable interior anchor, Styles Phipps can organize late possessions and Vaughn Weems supplies efficient wing scoring. The Wolf Pack’s defense travels, and Steve Alford’s group wins three games in March to claim the automatic bid.
Confidence · 54%
The league earns a second ticket
The Mountain West Sends Two Teams Dancing
New Mexico wins the regular season and builds an at-large résumé behind Jake Hall and Uriah Tenette. Nevada then takes the conference tournament, giving the rebuilt Mountain West two NCAA bids in its first season after realignment.
Confidence · 48%

Your turn on the record

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Build your own board

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Checking for a local draft

The crowd's ballot

Community consensus

See where completed fan ballots agree, where opinions split, and how the community compares with Shooty Hoops and your own picks.

Counting the room

Building the current community board…

The Mountain Moved. Who Claims the Peak?

Conference superlatives