ARCH MADNESS STARTS IN NOVEMBER

Last March should have closed the book on the Missouri Valley season. Belmont won the regular season outright at 16–4 and arrived in St. Louis as the top seed. Then ninth-seeded Drake scored 100 points on the Bruins, and sixth-seeded Northern Iowa became the first team to win four games in four days at Arch Madness. The spring brought another turn. Belmont and UNI changed coaches, and the three teams that had shared third place moved to the front of the 2026–27 race. Two of them, Murray State and UIC, entered the league together in 2022 and are still chasing a first MVC crown. Their different routes to the top make this much more than a reshuffled standings table. Murray State gets first place on this ballot because Roman Domon is ready to carry more than a freshman label. He scored 453 points last season, the second most by a freshman in school history behind Cameron Payne, while averaging 14.1 points and 5.1 rebounds. His value extends beyond volume. Domon can score off cuts, spot ups and hard drives, so Ryan Miller does not have to park the ball in his hands to feature him. The new guards must make the defense shift first. Kaden Magwood brings power and pace after a season at Auburn, Christian Jones can settle the half court, and French guard Talis Soulhac adds another pick and roll option. Brigham Rogers finished 72.5 percent of his shots for Belmont, while Shon Tupuola gives Murray State the interior body it lost with Fred King. The Racers' August trip to France offered an early clue. They went 4–0, forced 28 turnovers in each of the final two games and turned pressure into easy baskets. That formula would let Domon attack gaps instead of creating every gap himself. UIC can argue that it has fewer questions to answer. The Flames reached their first MVC tournament final and posted their best defensive efficiency since 2008. Andy Johnson, Ahmad Henderson II, Mekhi Lowery, Rashund Washington Jr. and Jayce Nathaniel all return, giving Robert Ehsan several lineups that already understand his coverages. Gabe Cupps adds a stubborn point of attack defender. Asa Thomas stretches coverage well beyond the arc, and Lucas Scroggins adds size. One perimeter option remains outside the official roster. Benny Gealer would add another proven shooter if his eligibility is cleared, but this projection does not count him in UIC’s rotation. The Flames can switch with Lowery at center, play bigger with Nathaniel or Scroggins, and surround either look with real shooting. The final job is establishing a closing pecking order after Elijah Crawford's departure. The Flames have enough options. They need one guard to own the final six minutes. Illinois State may have the least to invent. The Redbirds went 23–13 and reached the NIT semifinals, then kept leading scorers Chase Walker and Johnny Kinziger. Walker scores on the block, passes from the elbow and draws enough attention to simplify Kinziger's reads. Kinziger supplied 119 assists last season and gives the perimeter a reliable organizer. Demarion Burch's downhill force and Zaxton King's size add different ways to attack beside them. One major variable remains outside the official roster. Xavier transfer Malik Messina-Moore would raise the ceiling if his fifth-year eligibility appeal succeeds, but the injunction is currently stayed. This projection treats his 10.9 points and 3.8 assists as a possibility rather than a promise. Valparaiso is the development bet tucked just below the top three. J.T. Pettigrew averaged 17.4 points and 8.6 rebounds over the final month, and Rakim Chaney finished his freshman year with 92 assists, 46 steals and 60 threes. They were solving senior coverages before they had senior strength. Five young contributors announced their return together, giving Roger Powell a chance to teach the next layer of the playbook. Better defensive possessions and cleaner decisions against pressure could turn that continuity into a title push. There is enough substance behind the first four to keep the race unstable. Indiana State added Greyson Pritzl, a 42.1 percent Division II shooter, to an experienced guard group. Drake brought in Jon Carroll and Justin Burns to add rebounding and physicality to Eric Henderson's motion offense. Southern Illinois can make games live in the paint with Ty Laur and Jaheem Webber. UNI and Belmont begin again under Kyle Green and Evan Bradds after winning last season's two trophies. Their lower placement reflects how much must be rebuilt, yet Arch Madness just supplied a four-day reminder of what a lower seed can do. January road games will expose vague roles and soft defensive rebounding. Depth matters when a team knows which five belong on the floor after the first action breaks down. Murray State has the star who can break a stalemate, UIC can change size and coverage without surrendering its shooting, Illinois State brings the clearest inside-out partnership, and Valparaiso has the highest developmental upside. We lean Murray State because its new guards can make Domon's life easier and its pressure can manufacture points before the half court tightens. Last year's tie for third was the final line in the standings. This season it reads like the opening scene.