
Pac-12
The preseason issueThe race. The rosters. The picks.
Leader of the New Pac
Braden Huff and Massamba Diop give Gonzaga an inside game built for a title run. Utah State's Mason Falslev leads the pursuit as nine programs begin sorting out who belongs beside the Bulldogs on the national stage.
Projected champion
The team to beat on our official board
Dark horse
A threat to break the bracket
Projected NCAA bids
Gonzaga offers a second-weekend ceiling; Utah State leads a credible chase for additional NCAA places.
Chaos rating
How unpredictable is this race?
The quick read
Conference superlatives
The opening tip
A Few Good Rivals
The league's pace won't be uniform. Boise State can manufacture possessions with perimeter pressure, while Utah State can use a passing big to punish overplays. Teams that speed opponents up must also survive patient half-court execution.
Justin Joyner returned to Michigan on Oct. 16, accepted his national championship ring, then nearly spoiled the celebration. Oregon State lost 98–93, with DeShawn Gory scoring 20 and Legend Smiley making five threes. One exhibition won't settle the race, but the Beavers showed several ways to score against a national contender. Oregon State helped keep the Pac-12 alive. Now Joyner wants a place near the top of it. Gonzaga remains the team those ambitions run through. Braden Huff is back from his knee injury, and Arizona State transfer Massamba Diop brings a different kind of interior force: 69 blocks last season, plus the reach to finish above defenders. Huff can work a matchup in the post while Diop screens, dives and protects the other basket. The backcourt is the bigger experiment. Xaivian Lee's passing and Javon Bennett's shooting should keep opponents from swarming the bigs; both guards currently have court protection in their fifth-year cases, with appeals still possible. Utah State has the strongest case for interrupting that title run. Ben Jacobson takes over after Jerrod Calhoun's departure but inherits the reigning Mountain West Player of the Year in Mason Falslev. Will Hornseth, who followed Jacobson from Northern Iowa, already knows when the cuts should come. With Dallin Hall organizing and Hornseth passing from the interior, Falslev can attack a shifting defense instead of creating every opening himself. He is day-to-day with a lower-body injury; the Aggies still won at Saint Mary's without him in their Oct. 17 exhibition. Boise State's Aginaldo Neto and Pearson Carmichael combined for 51 points against Washington, a promising sign as Leon Rice asks his returning supporting players to take over the scoring. San Diego State supplied the warning: holding Arizona to 34.7 percent shooting still produced a 15-point exhibition loss, with the Wildcats collecting 20 offensive rebounds. Brian Dutcher's rebuilt frontcourt has to finish those defensive possessions. Colorado State can test a defense in another way: Carey Booth and Kyle Jorgensen both shot better than 40 percent from three, making it harder to keep a shot-blocker near the basket. A 16-game home-and-away schedule gives everyone two meetings with Gonzaga. Our two-bid forecast also needs November and December wins from the challengers, before they begin taking games off one another. The new conference's reputation will be decided as much by a possible third NCAA team as by Gonzaga's seed.
The defining storylineGonzaga visits Utah State on Jan. 21 and hosts the Aggies on Feb. 13. Can Ben Jacobson's first team turn those two meetings into the new league's first title rivalry?
Official projection + model comparison
The big board
Projected records, finish ranges, and two views of the race. Switch boards to compare our picks with the model.
Ranking machine · comparison at a glance
Editorial board vs. model
Teams are ordered by the official Shooty Hoops editorial rank.
- 1GonzagaBraden Huff and Massamba Diop give Gonzaga the league's toughest interior pairing, with experienced guards and Davis Fogle's expanding role making the Zags the team to chase.Conf / overall13-3 / —TierFavoriteCeiling / floor1–3Same rank · #11Official rankGonzagaBraden Huff and Massamba Diop give Gonzaga the league's toughest interior pairing, with experienced guards and Davis Fogle's expanding role making the Zags the team to chase.Same rank · #1Conf / overall13-3 / —TierFavoriteRange1–3
- 2Utah St.Mason Falslev gives Ben Jacobson a proven star for his first season, while Dallin Hall and Will Hornseth give Utah State ways to create without leaning on Falslev every trip.Conf / overall11-5 / —TierContenderCeiling / floor1–4Same rank · #22Official rankUtah St.Mason Falslev gives Ben Jacobson a proven star for his first season, while Dallin Hall and Will Hornseth give Utah State ways to create without leaning on Falslev every trip.Same rank · #2Conf / overall11-5 / —TierContenderRange1–4
- 3Oregon St.Justin Joyner's rebuild starts with Daniel Freitag and Josiah Lake II driving the offense; Oregon State's place near the top depends on how quickly its young centers settle in.Conf / overall10-6 / —TierContenderCeiling / floor2–71 vs model #43Official rankOregon St.Justin Joyner's rebuild starts with Daniel Freitag and Josiah Lake II driving the offense; Oregon State's place near the top depends on how quickly its young centers settle in.1 vs model #4Conf / overall10-6 / —TierContenderRange2–7
- 4Boise St.Damari Wheeler-Thomas brings proven shooting, but Boise State's rise also needs Aginaldo Neto and Pearson Carmichael to turn promising supporting seasons into dependable scoring roles.Conf / overall9-7 / —TierContenderCeiling / floor3–83 vs model #74Official rankBoise St.Damari Wheeler-Thomas brings proven shooting, but Boise State's rise also needs Aginaldo Neto and Pearson Carmichael to turn promising supporting seasons into dependable scoring roles.3 vs model #7Conf / overall9-7 / —TierContenderRange3–8
- 5Col St.Six of Colorado State's top eight scorers return, including shooting bigs Carey Booth and Kyle Jorgensen; Justin Menard takes over the playmaking as the Rams chase an NCAA return.Conf / overall8-8 / —TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor2–7Same rank · #55Official rankCol St.Six of Colorado State's top eight scorers return, including shooting bigs Carey Booth and Kyle Jorgensen; Justin Menard takes over the playmaking as the Rams chase an NCAA return.Same rank · #5Conf / overall8-8 / —TierDangerous MiddleRange2–7
- 6SD St. Chance Gladden and Isaiah Sy bring playmaking and shooting to San Diego State; Brian Dutcher must rebuild the defense after losing Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath.Conf / overall7-9 / —TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–8Same rank · #66Official rankSD St. Chance Gladden and Isaiah Sy bring playmaking and shooting to San Diego State; Brian Dutcher must rebuild the defense after losing Miles Byrd and Magoon Gwath.Same rank · #6Conf / overall7-9 / —TierDangerous MiddleRange3–8
- 7Texas St.D.J. Hall returns with experienced scorers in Quel'Ron House, K.J. Younger and Paul Djobet; Texas State's smaller frontcourt faces a tougher test as the Bobcats leave the Sun Belt.Conf / overall6-10 / —TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–84 vs model #37Official rankTexas St.D.J. Hall returns with experienced scorers in Quel'Ron House, K.J. Younger and Paul Djobet; Texas State's smaller frontcourt faces a tougher test as the Bobcats leave the Sun Belt.4 vs model #3Conf / overall6-10 / —TierDangerous MiddleRange3–8
- 8Fresno St.Ross Candelino's shooting and Roger Fàbrega Urpina's passing give Vance Walberg fresh options, but thirteen newcomers must learn to defend together for Fresno State to escape the bottom two.Conf / overall5-11 / —TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–9Same rank · #88Official rankFresno St.Ross Candelino's shooting and Roger Fàbrega Urpina's passing give Vance Walberg fresh options, but thirteen newcomers must learn to defend together for Fresno State to escape the bottom two.Same rank · #8Conf / overall5-11 / —TierLong ShotRange6–9
- 9Wash St.David Riley's latest overhaul leans on Lazerek Houston's playmaking and Ronnie Harrison's physicality, with Tyler Kropp's development and better ball containment essential to Washington State climbing out of last.Conf / overall3-13 / —TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–9Same rank · #99Official rankWash St.David Riley's latest overhaul leans on Lazerek Houston's playmaking and Ronnie Harrison's physicality, with Tyler Kropp's development and better ball containment essential to Washington State climbing out of last.Same rank · #9Conf / overall3-13 / —TierLong ShotRange6–9
The scouting room
Team-by-team preview
Pick a program to explore its outlook, projected rotation, and players to know.
2026-27 team preview · official rank 1
Gonzaga
Conference
13-3
Overall
—
Finish window
1–3
Confidence
82%
Official order · choose a team file
Projected rotation · Published roster depth chart
10 of 10 primary spots filled
Five on the floor
The All-Conference court
Explore all three projected teams. Select a player for the spotlight and open their full profile.
The basket is on the upper baseline. Guards are positioned around the lower three-point perimeter, while forwards and centers are positioned in the upper lane and around the rim.
The hardware
The awards race
The favorites, the challengers, and the case behind every pick.
The projected podium
Player of the Year
Why this pick leads
Falslev can drive Utah State's title bid without needing every possession called for him: he scores, rebounds and disrupts opposing guards. Huff is the closest challenger as Gonzaga's primary post scorer, especially with a healthy full season. Hall follows after a record-setting freshman year, with Texas State relying on him for both interior offense and rebounding.
How strongly the current projection favors this pick. These are not betting odds.
Beyond the main ballot
The extra pages
Breakout candidates, bold predictions, and other players who could shape the race.
Five players who can bend the race
Race Shapers
The possessions between the stars
These players sit outside the award podiums and All-Conference teams, but their specific jobs could change who wins the close games.

Dallin Hall
Utah St.G · P-GrThe possession organizer
Dallin Hall frees Falslev
Hall averaged 4.4 assists while starting every game at Virginia. If he handles the first action cleanly, Utah State can send Mason Falslev into the second action against a defense already moving.
75% confident
Jerquarius Stanback
Boise St.F · JrProtection at the rim
Jerquarius Stanback protects Boise's pressure
Stanback blocked 65 shots at Alabama State and won SWAC Defensive Player of the Year. His reach gives Boise's guards room to pressure the ball, but he must balance helping at the rim with finishing possessions on the glass against bigger Pac-12 frontcourts.
72% confident
Jackson Rasmussen
Oregon St.F · SoThe second-side scorer
Jackson Rasmussen punishes the help
Rasmussen started 35 games and averaged 13.5 points at Idaho. Oregon State needs him to turn catches after a guard's penetration into immediate drives or finishes, especially when opponents load up on its backcourt.
67% confident
Chance Gladden
SD St.G · SoThe offensive initiator
Chance Gladden gets the Aztecs moving
Gladden produced 150 assists as a Boston University freshman. San Diego State needs him to draw a second defender in ball screens, find Cherry on the roll and deliver cleaner catches to Sy. That would give the Aztecs more ways to score when transition chances disappear.
70% confident
Ross Candelino
Fresno St.G · R-SrAn upset accelerant
Ross Candelino stretches the favorite
Candelino's 42.6 percent three-point shooting at Lipscomb gives Fresno State a credible weapon against defenses that collapse on penetration. His movement shooting can turn a competitive half into a genuine upset threat.
66% confident
Growth with a basketball reason
Breakout Team
Five roles ready to expand
Each candidate has an identifiable baseline and a specific way to improve it.

Davis Fogle
GonzagaG · SoMore than a minutes bump
Davis Fogle becomes a second creator
Fogle's 51.6 percent shooting provides a useful starting point. The next step is attacking a closeout and making the following pass, a responsibility that becomes more available as Gonzaga replaces departed perimeter starters.
78% confident
Tae Simmons
SD St.F · SoFinishes become possessions
Tae Simmons earns a larger diet
Simmons made 64.7 percent of his shots in a reserve role. Starting minutes should give him more screening and offensive-rebounding chances; developing quick decisions after a short roll would make that promotion more than extra playing time.
71% confident
Spencer Ahrens
Boise St.F · SoA vacancy at forward
Spencer Ahrens graduates from stretches
Ahrens averaged 4.9 points in 13 minutes and made 35.5 percent of his threes. Boise State's departed frontcourt scorers leave room for him to become a pick-and-pop option rather than an occasional reserve shooter.
64% confident
Elzie Harrington
SD St.G · SoThe harder shots arrive
Elzie Harrington attacks the closeout
Harrington's 43.6 percent three-point shooting came on only 39 attempts. Defenders should respect the catch more now, creating a chance to use his passing on drives instead of relying on that percentage to hold at greater volume.
69% confident
Isiah Harwell
GonzagaF · SoA cleaner shot menu
Isiah Harwell finds simpler offense
Harwell shot 28.1 percent at Houston, so reputation alone cannot establish his scoring case. Gonzaga can offer cuts behind post doubles and transition finishes, letting him rebuild efficiency before expanding his perimeter responsibilities.
60% confident
Three calls with a clear finish line
Bold Predictions
Put these on the scoreboard
A few calls that could define the season if the conference breaks the right way.
Two-big payoff
Gonzaga wins at least 13 league games
Braden Huff's interior scoring and Mor Massamba Diop's rim protection give Gonzaga complementary frontcourt answers. Multiple experienced ballhandlers should prevent opponents from stopping that partnership simply by pressuring the entry pass.
Confidence · 63%
The guard bet
Oregon State finishes in the top three
Daniel Freitag can draw fouls while Josiah Lake II keeps the ball moving. If the new centers provide ordinary defensive stability, that backcourt should produce enough late-game offense to separate the Beavers from the crowded middle.
Confidence · 57%
A difficult road stop
Fresno State beats a top-three finisher
KJ Perry's penetration and Ross Candelino's range can force a contender to defend both the rim and moving shooters. Fresno State's season-long limitations need not prevent one explosive home performance.
Confidence · 56%
Your turn on the record
Build your conference ballot
Make your picks, save your unfinished ballot on this device, and compare your calls with ours.
Build your own board
Rank the league, draw your tiers, name fifteen All-Conference players, and hand out the hardware. Your draft stays on this device until you choose to publish it. You can return to the same link to edit and resubmit later.
Checking for a local draft
The crowd’s ballot
Community consensus
See where fan ballots agree, where opinions split, and how the crowd compares with Shooty Hoops.
Counting the room
Building the current community board…








