
Patriot
In Continuity We Trust
After four straight Colgate titles, American and Lehigh won the last two. Now the Eagles rise from fifth to favorite while Lehigh and a Navy team that won 17 of 18 league games replace the stars who powered those runs.

The cover line
American brings back its core. Lehigh has Hank Alvey in the paint, Colgate returns 11 players, Boston University gets Kyrone Alexander back and Navy retains three experienced guards from its historic run.
Projected champion
American
The team to beat on our official board
Dark horse
Boston U.
The team most likely to break the bracket
Projected NCAA bids
1
American offers the best chance at national traction; the league still projects near the bottom of Division I.
Chaos rating
74 / 100
How likely the board is to get weird
The quick read
Conference superlatives
The opening tip
Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of an Autobid
American attacks with size across the lineup, Lehigh feeds Hank Alvey inside, Colgate plays through Andrew Alekseyenko and Boston University stretches the floor with shooters around Kyrone Alexander.
Colgate owned March from 2021 through 2024, winning four straight Patriot League tournaments. American broke the streak in 2025. Lehigh followed last March after opening the season eighth in the preseason poll, while Navy’s 17 win league campaign ended one point short of the final. Three straight champions have taken three different routes. The current favorite finished fifth last winter. American’s rise begins with a young group that already showed its ceiling. The Eagles were the only Patriot opponent to beat Navy, holding the Midshipmen to 51 points and 32.6 percent shooting as Greg Jones scored 23. Madden Collins averaged 13.4 points and 4.8 rebounds as a freshman while making 50.8 percent of his shots. At 6 feet 8, Julen Iturbe can pass from the frontcourt and punish a center who strays too far into help. All three return, along with Matt Mayock, Wyatt Nausadis and Kade Sebastian. Carson McDonald is also back after playing only four games, restoring some needed size. American lost five of seven games decided by three points or fewer and finished minus 1.7 rebounds per game. Geoff Sprouse’s 76 threes are gone, too. Better work on the glass and enough shooting to keep the lane open would turn last season’s frustrating finishes into a title. Lehigh can begin its defense by throwing the ball to Hank Alvey. At 6 feet 9 and 251 pounds, the junior averaged 15.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and a league best 1.8 blocks. Nasir Whitlock is gone after scoring 20.5 per game and owning the biggest moments of the tournament run. Chris Tshibola arrives from Laval with 20.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, plus U Sports Rookie of the Year and RSEQ MVP honors. Division I is a different test, but his downhill game and passing should open room for Alvey. Joshua Ingram and Edouard Benoit give Brett Reed experienced help around them. A repeat depends on spreading Whitlock’s old workload across that group. Colgate has the fewest surprises in the frontcourt and the biggest question in the backcourt. Matt Langel returns 11 players from a team that won 18 games and reached a ninth consecutive Patriot semifinal. Andrew Alekseyenko averaged 14.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists as the league’s Rookie of the Year while shooting 38.3 percent from three. Sam Wright can pull another big away from the rim. Parker Jones is back on the roster after missing last season with an injury; a healthy return would restore an experienced career 37.8 percent shooter. Jalen Cox took roughly 16 points and 5.3 assists to USC. A new point guard must keep the offense moving and protect the ball long enough for Colgate’s skilled frontcourt to take over. Boston University is a harder read. The Terriers reached the final and set program records for field goal percentage and made threes, then lost Michael McNair, Ben Defty and Chance Gladden, their three All Patriot League selections. Kyrone Alexander changes the outlook. An All Patriot League wing in 2025, he missed nearly all of last season with an injury and returned to game action for Barbados in July. He averaged 28.8 points across four games and made 51.6 percent from three. Sam Hughes, Azmar Abdullah and Donte Tisinger Jr. keep plenty of shooting around him. The questions move inside, where Defty’s finishing and rim protection have no single replacement. Navy is where this projection can look foolish. In Jon Perry’s first season, the Midshipmen allowed 64.3 points per game, held opponents below 30 percent from three and won 17 of 18 Patriot games. Austin Benigni, Aidan Kehoe and Donovan Draper are gone, taking the lead creator, the country’s most accurate finisher and the lineup’s best disruptive defender. Jinwoo Kim, Jordan Pennick and captain Cam Cole keep experience in the backcourt. The rebuilding job is concentrated around the basket, and Navy cannot use the portal for a quick fix. If the freshman bigs can rebound and survive defensively, Perry’s system can keep the reigning regular season champion in the race. The ballot starts with American because no other contender returns as much proven production at both ends. Lehigh can own the paint, Colgate can build through its frontcourt, Boston University can outshoot almost anyone and Navy still knows how to guard. The Eagles have four months to turn continuity into home court advantage. March gets the final vote.
The defining storylineCan American turn the only Patriot League win over Navy and a roster loaded with returning production into the leap from fifth place to first?
Official projection + model comparison
The big board
See how every team stacks up through projected records, finish ranges, and the model’s view of the race.
Ranking machine · comparison at a glance
Editorial board vs. model
Teams are ordered by the official Shooty Hoops editorial rank.
- 1AmericanAmerican brings back Collins, Jones and Iturbe from the only Patriot team that beat Navy in league play. That continuity outweighs the loss of Geoff Sprouse’s 76 threes.Conf / overall14-4 / —TierFavoriteCeiling / floor1–4Boards agree · #11Official rankAmericanAmerican brings back Collins, Jones and Iturbe from the only Patriot team that beat Navy in league play. That continuity outweighs the loss of Geoff Sprouse’s 76 threes.Boards agree · #1Conf / overall14-4 / —TierFavoriteRange1–4
- 2LehighHank Alvey gives the defending tournament champion a reliable scorer inside, and Laval star Chris Tshibola gets the enormous assignment of replacing Nasir Whitlock’s creation.Conf / overall12-6 / —TierContenderCeiling / floor1–5Boards agree · #22Official rankLehighHank Alvey gives the defending tournament champion a reliable scorer inside, and Laval star Chris Tshibola gets the enormous assignment of replacing Nasir Whitlock’s creation.Boards agree · #2Conf / overall12-6 / —TierContenderRange1–5
- 3ColgateAndrew Alekseyenko and Sam Wright form a skilled frontcourt. An untested point-guard rotation is the reason the Raiders stop at third despite nine straight semifinal trips.Conf / overall12-6 / —TierContenderCeiling / floor1–6Boards agree · #33Official rankColgateAndrew Alekseyenko and Sam Wright form a skilled frontcourt. An untested point-guard rotation is the reason the Raiders stop at third despite nine straight semifinal trips.Boards agree · #3Conf / overall12-6 / —TierContenderRange1–6
- 4Boston U.Kyrone Alexander and Sam Hughes give Boston University dangerous wing scoring, but the Terriers must replace 46.4 points per game from McNair, Defty and Gladden.Conf / overall10-8 / —TierContenderCeiling / floor2–8Boards agree · #44Official rankBoston U.Kyrone Alexander and Sam Hughes give Boston University dangerous wing scoring, but the Terriers must replace 46.4 points per game from McNair, Defty and Gladden.Boards agree · #4Conf / overall10-8 / —TierContenderRange2–8
- 5BucknellA 2-0 Canadian tour showed Jayden Williams has more shooting around him. Carleton’s 25 offensive rebounds also exposed the glass as Bucknell’s barrier to the top four.Conf / overall9-9 / —TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–92 spots higher than published model · #75Official rankBucknellA 2-0 Canadian tour showed Jayden Williams has more shooting around him. Carleton’s 25 offensive rebounds also exposed the glass as Bucknell’s barrier to the top four.2 spots higher than published model · #7Conf / overall9-9 / —TierDangerous MiddleRange3–9
- 6NavyThe 17-1 champion still has Jinwoo Kim, Cam Cole and Jordan Pennick, yet replacing Benigni, Kehoe, Draper and Woods removes about 48 points and 21 rebounds a night.Conf / overall9-9 / —TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–9Boards agree · #66Official rankNavyThe 17-1 champion still has Jinwoo Kim, Cam Cole and Jordan Pennick, yet replacing Benigni, Kehoe, Draper and Woods removes about 48 points and 21 rebounds a night.Boards agree · #6Conf / overall9-9 / —TierDangerous MiddleRange3–9
- 7Loyola MdTroy Cicero’s shooting gives Loyola one familiar weapon, but Speed, Adair and Theodosiou took 43 points per game with them and left a roster searching for its lead scorer.Conf / overall7-11 / —TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor5–102 spots higher than published model · #97Official rankLoyola MdTroy Cicero’s shooting gives Loyola one familiar weapon, but Speed, Adair and Theodosiou took 43 points per game with them and left a roster searching for its lead scorer.2 spots higher than published model · #9Conf / overall7-11 / —TierDangerous MiddleRange5–10
- 8ArmyRyan Curry and Jacen Holloway can run coherent offense, though the losses of Jaxson Bell, Jackson Furman and Jorn Everson make the minutes beyond Army’s first unit hard to trust.Conf / overall7-11 / —TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor5–103 spots lower than published model · #58Official rankArmyRyan Curry and Jacen Holloway can run coherent offense, though the losses of Jaxson Bell, Jackson Furman and Jorn Everson make the minutes beyond Army’s first unit hard to trust.3 spots lower than published model · #5Conf / overall7-11 / —TierDangerous MiddleRange5–10
- 9Holy CrossJoe Nugent and Division II marksman Arius Alijosius can win a shooting night, while a rebuilt backcourt and little proven rim protection make that formula difficult to repeat.Conf / overall5-13 / —TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–101 spot higher than published model · #109Official rankHoly CrossJoe Nugent and Division II marksman Arius Alijosius can win a shooting night, while a rebuilt backcourt and little proven rim protection make that formula difficult to repeat.1 spot higher than published model · #10Conf / overall5-13 / —TierLong ShotRange6–10
- 10LafayetteShareef Jackson gives four new starters an interior reference point. Aaron Sievert and Shelton Henton bring scoring pedigrees, but replacing Williams, Phillips and Butler is the league’s steepest reset.Conf / overall5-13 / —TierLong ShotCeiling / floor6–102 spots lower than published model · #810Official rankLafayetteShareef Jackson gives four new starters an interior reference point. Aaron Sievert and Shelton Henton bring scoring pedigrees, but replacing Williams, Phillips and Butler is the league’s steepest reset.2 spots lower than published model · #8Conf / overall5-13 / —TierLong ShotRange6–10
The interactive scouting room
Team-by-team preview
Move across the conference one program at a time. Open projected rotations, meet the players, and inspect the identity and postseason case behind every ranking.
2026-27 team preview · official rank 1
American
Conference
14-4
Overall
—
Finish window
1–4
Confidence
75%
Official order · choose a team file
Projected rotation · Published roster depth chart
10 of 10 primary spots filled
Five on the floor
The All-Conference court
Explore all three projected teams. Select a player for the spotlight, then choose Open Player Card for their full profile.
The basket is on the upper baseline. Guards are positioned around the lower three-point perimeter, while forwards and centers are positioned in the upper lane and around the rim.
The hardware
The awards race
Browse every projected award race. See the current favorite, the strongest challengers, and the case for each pick.
The projected podium
Player of the Year
Why this pick leads
Hank Alvey has the most complete established case, including a 23-point, 15-rebound NCAA performance against Prairie View A&M that showed his interior production could survive a difficult matchup. Madden Collins can overtake him by becoming the leading scorer on the best team, but must extend his effectiveness into starter minutes. Andrew Alekseyenko has a comparable offensive ceiling, with greater uncertainty around the guards delivering him the ball.
How strongly the current projection favors this pick. These are not betting odds.
Beyond the main ballot
The extra pages
Meet the players outside our All-Conference and award picks who could still shape the race, then explore breakout candidates and bold predictions.
Beyond the ballots
Race Shapers
Five players who change the matchups
These players can alter the race by solving a specific problem for the teammates around them.

Kade Sebastian
AmericanG · SoThe first decision
Kade Sebastian keeps the floor connected
Sebastian made 33 threes and committed 23 turnovers across 32 games. American needs that economy to survive a bigger point-guard assignment: early reversals and timely entries can keep its scorers attacking before the defense settles.
74% confident
Alex Zakheim
Boston U.PG · JRThe level jump that matters
Alex Zakheim can keep BU from becoming a one-creator team
Boston University lost Chance Gladden’s 4.5 assists per game along with the three scorers who supplied 46.4 points per game, so Kyrone Alexander cannot carry every difficult possession. Zakheim arrives from Brandeis after averaging 18.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and a team-high 3.8 assists. If his handle holds up against Division I pressure, the Terriers have the extra creator they need to remain in the top four.
71% confident
Edouard Benoit
LehighF · JrThe defender cannot stand still
Edouard Benoit decides how crowded the paint gets
Benoit's six rebounds per game justify frontcourt minutes, but his 31.3 percent three-point shooting leaves opponents room to help. More reliable corner shooting would make doubling Lehigh's post scorer a much more expensive choice.
69% confident
Jordan Pennick
NavyG · SrFrom receiver to initiator
Jordan Pennick must turn the corner
Pennick's 44 made threes establish shooting volume, but Navy now needs him to initiate possessions. If he can force a second defender to help without overdribbling, the Midshipmen can get their other shooters cleaner catches despite a rebuilt frontcourt.
64% confident
Aleksander Pachucki
BucknellG · JrA summer glimpse
Aleksander Pachucki stretches the chase
Pachucki scored 22 points against Carleton in July after making 42 threes during the college season. The exhibition is a glimpse, not a forecast, but a dependable high-volume shooter would let Bucknell attack defenses that otherwise crowd its smaller guards.
68% confident
The next step
Breakout Team
Growth with a basketball reason
Each selection starts with a real baseline and an identifiable way to earn more responsibility.

Madden Collins
AmericanG · SoMore minutes, harder questions
Madden Collins becomes the nightly assignment
Collins scored 13.4 points in fewer than 22 minutes per game. Starter minutes provide the growth opportunity; learning to pass out of the extra help aimed at his drives is the skill that can turn a scoring jump into a complete breakout.
79% confident
Donte Tisinger
Boston U.G · SoA reserve with closing potential
Donte Tisinger earns the last five minutes
Tisinger averaged 6.4 points and 1.8 assists without a start. Boston University's guard departures create room for him to run more possessions, while his 48.9 percent shooting gives him a credible finishing baseline when defenders chase the surrounding shooters.
72% confident
Sebastien Emenalo
Loyola MdF · SoRebounds become opportunities
Sebastien Emenalo adds offense without demanding it
Emenalo collected 3.3 rebounds in roughly 14 minutes per game. A starting role can turn that activity into more putbacks and transition finishes, allowing him to grow from a 3.2-point scorer before Loyola needs a major jump in his jumper.
64% confident
Shareef Jackson
LafayetteF · SoThe post becomes a command center
Shareef Jackson learns to beat the second defender
Jackson's 10.0-point freshman season established his finishing. The next step is quicker recognition when help arrives: reducing the 63 turnovers attached to his 47 assists would let Lafayette run more offense through him without surrendering possessions.
73% confident
Andrew Urosevic
LehighG · SoA jumper with room to grow
Andrew Urosevic makes his minutes harder to remove
Urosevic attempted 145 threes in his first season, demonstrating a willingness to shoot that Lehigh will need. Improving from 33.1 percent while holding up defensively could lift him from a 7.3-point reserve into a regular closing option.
67% confident
Calls worth testing
Bold Predictions
Three claims for the season ahead
Specific outcomes that would reveal which preseason assumptions held up.
No split decision
American wins the Patriot and goes dancing
American returns Madden Collins, Greg Jones, Julen Iturbe and Matt Mayock from the only Patriot team that beat Navy last season. The Eagles turn that experience into the outright regular-season title, win the campus-site tournament and claim the league’s NCAA bid.
Confidence · 67%
Four teams, no daylight
The Patriot race stays alive until the final week
American, Lehigh, Colgate and Boston University each spend part of February within one loss of first place. American eventually takes the title at 14-4, but the four contenders trade enough losses that nobody separates from the pack until the closing week.
Confidence · 61%
The bill comes due
Navy falls from 17-1 into the bottom half
Jinwoo Kim, Cam Cole and Jordan Pennick keep Navy competitive, but Benigni, Kehoe, Draper and Woods take about 48 points and 21 rebounds out of last season’s rotation. The system still travels; the missing frontcourt and late-clock creator turn a historic league campaign into sixth place or worse.
Confidence · 52%
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See where completed fan ballots agree, where opinions split, and how the community compares with Shooty Hoops and your own picks.
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