The SEC Has a Gator Problem

Florida spent last winter making the SEC race look settled. The Gators finished 16–2, won the league by three games and earned a No. 1 seed. Against the conference's four eventual Sweet 16 teams, they went 4–0 with an average winning margin of 23.5 points. Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Boogie Fland return from that team. Todd Golden has every reason to expect another championship contender, and the rest of the SEC has a considerable gap to close. Haugh gives Golden room to change the shape of the offense. Moving him to power forward creates room for another shooter, although it takes either Condon's passing or Chinyelu's rebounding out of that lineup. Urban Klavzar, a 40.6 percent three-point shooter, makes those smaller combinations attractive. A defender helping off him cannot stay in the lane as comfortably as one assigned to Fland, who shot 24 percent from deep. Florida can overwhelm an opponent with size; against a defense packed around its big men, Golden needs more ways to spread the floor. For the first time at Florida, Golden will enter consecutive seasons with the same starting point guard. Fland's 121 assists against 55 turnovers provide a sound foundation. A reliable pull-up or catch-and-shoot three would change where defenders meet him and how much help they can give against Condon. Denzel Aberdeen's return from Kentucky would add another experienced scorer, but his fifth-year eligibility remains unresolved. Better perimeter offense would give Florida more protection on a night like its second-round loss to Iowa, when the Hawkeyes matched the Gators on the glass and Chinyelu managed one rebound. Texas offers the strongest reason to expect a closer race. Sean Miller's first season ended in the Sweet 16 after a 9–9 conference finish. Now the Longhorns have to turn a good March into five good months. Matas Vokietaitis is the lone returning starter, surrounded by 11 newcomers. He put 23 points and 16 rebounds on BYU in the NCAA Tournament; adding David Punch, who blocked 66 shots for TCU, gives Texas a formidable pair around the basket. Punch can challenge a driver while Vokietaitis stays close enough to rebound, a useful arrangement against Florida's size. Isaiah Johnson averaged 16.9 points as a Colorado freshman and attempted 195 free throws, making him a threat to reach the rim as well as spread the floor. Mikey Lewis brings shooting and experience from Saint Mary's. Johnson's ability to beat the first defender should force opposing centers to choose between stopping the ball and staying with Vokietaitis. We have Texas second. Miller's new guards and big men will have to develop their timing quickly enough to justify it. John Calipari is beginning again at guard, too, after Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas combined for 1,424 points. Acuff's 30 points and 11 assists against Vanderbilt delivered Arkansas the SEC Tournament championship. Asking Jordan Smith Jr. to inherit that job immediately would be a considerable demand even for the national high school player of the year. Billy Richmond III's late-season surge gave Arkansas another player worth building around. Richmond scored at least 20 points in five straight SEC games, then produced 15 points and 10 assists against High Point in the NCAA Tournament. Richmond and Smith give Arkansas two powerful perimeter attackers, while Georgia transfer Jeremiah Wilkinson brings established SEC scoring. Calipari can push after rebounds and let Richmond attack before the defense finds its matchups. The concern comes when those early opportunities disappear: Acuff and Thomas supplied an enormous amount of late-clock offense. Richmond's passing gives Calipari a way to get Smith off the ball without losing another creator, and a chance to distribute the responsibility that Acuff handled so well. Tennessee's ambition has become painfully specific. Rick Barnes has taken the Volunteers to three straight Elite Eights without reaching the program's first Final Four. Juke Harris arrives from Wake Forest after averaging 21.4 points, making 87 threes and attempting 249 free throws. He can punish a defender who backs off and get to the line against one who crowds him. Harris and fellow newcomers Terrence Hill Jr. and Jalen Haralson can share the creation after Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament's departures. The concern is behind them: Miles Rubin brings shot blocking, but Ralph Scott faces six to eight months out after knee surgery and Jalen Washington remains ineligible. Foul trouble for Rubin could force Barnes into smaller lineups against some imposing frontcourts. Kentucky found a particularly direct way to address its own March disappointment: sign the shooter who helped end its season. Milan Momcilovic scored 20 against the Wildcats in Iowa State's second-round win, then arrived in Lexington after making 136 threes at 48.7 percent. Mark Pope can make defenses follow him through screens and use the attention to open catches for Malachi Moreno inside. Against Florida, those possessions could force Haugh to chase a shooter instead of helping his big men near the basket. Alabama can stretch a frontcourt, too. Drew Fielder shot 40.9 percent from three at Boise State, and playing him away from the basket should open driving lanes for Amari Allen. Allen averaged 11.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists as a freshman; Nate Oats can give him more of the offense after Labaron Philon's departure. Replacing Aiden Sherrell's rim protection is a separate concern. The lineup that creates the most space for Allen could also be vulnerable to the SEC's better offensive rebounding teams. At Vanderbilt, Mark Byington has taken the Commodores to consecutive NCAA Tournaments and delivered their first tournament win since 2012 in just two seasons. Tyler Tanner withdrew from the draft after setting school records with 184 assists and 86 steals. Now he gets Washington State transfer Ace Glass, whose 71 threes broke Klay Thompson's freshman school record. Glass can shoot off Tanner's penetration, and sharing the ballhandling should let Byington keep a creator on the floor when Tanner rests. We have Vanderbilt eighth; Tanner is the player most capable of making that placement look timid. Auburn is asking its returning guards to turn an NIT championship into an NCAA return. Kevin Overton and Tahaad Pettiford combined for 50 points in the final, with Overton hitting the three that forced overtime against Tulsa. Pettiford also had eight assists. Steven Pearl can trust both to initiate the offense, and Overton's 41.3 percent three-point shooting makes him a dangerous outlet when opponents send help at Pettiford. Eligibility decisions could still change the league's depth. RJ Luis Jr. will not play for LSU, and Will Wade awaits rulings on other additions; Missouri is still waiting on Mark Mitchell's fifth-year case. Our pick is Florida at 14–4, with Texas closest. That gives the challengers credit for their additions while respecting the distance they have to make up. Golden can still win through rebounding and interior defense as he experiments with more shooting around Haugh and Condon. If Fland makes enough jumpers to keep defenders attached to him, the SEC could be facing a better offense from a team it already struggled to contain.