
Southland
Lake Charles, Take Four
Stephen F. Austin won a Southland record 20 league games last winter. McNeese still took the trophy, and with the tournament returning to Lake Charles, every challenger eventually has to win in the Cowboys’ house.

The cover line
A&M-Corpus Christi rebuilt around Sebastian Robinson, Lamar handed Jordan Fee a veteran-heavy overhaul and former McNeese assistant Brandon Chambers now runs UTRGV. The teams chasing the favorites should turn the middle of the standings into a nightly scrap.
Projected champion
McNeese
The team to beat on our official board
Dark horse
UTRGV
The team most likely to break the bracket
Projected NCAA bids
1
McNeese has the defensive tools for an NCAA upset; the league's broader national ceiling remains modest.
Chaos rating
48 / 100
How likely the board is to get weird
The quick read
Conference superlatives
The opening tip
Chopping at the Champs
Southland contenders win with force. McNeese turns pressure into easy baskets, SFA values the ball and spreads the floor, and Corpus Christi makes opponents work twice with defense and rebounding.
Stephen F. Austin won 20 Southland games last winter, more than any team in league history. Four days into March, the trophy still belonged to McNeese. The Cowboys held SFA to 37 percent from the floor and 24 percent from three, won the rebounding battle 37-24 and turned the championship game into a 76-59 rout. It was McNeese's third straight tournament title and a sharp reminder that the regular season only gets a team to Lake Charles. The Cowboys have earned the benefit of every close call. They are 86-17 over the past three seasons, 48-1 at Townsley Law Arena and winners of 37 consecutive home games against Southland opponents when tournament games are included. Bill Armstrong kept the program rolling after Will Wade left. Now he faces a different test. Javohn Garcia, Tyshawn Archie, Garwey Dual and DJ Richards are gone, taking most of last season's ballhandling, perimeter shooting and late-clock poise with them. Larry Johnson makes the rebuild feel less daunting. As a redshirt freshman, he averaged 17.4 points and 5.5 rebounds, shot 49.2 percent and broke the McNeese freshman scoring record that had belonged to Joe Dumars. He overwhelms smaller guards in the lane and finishes through contact, although his 25-for-105 mark from three invites defenses to crowd him. Dellquan Warren and JJ Rembert will get early chances to settle the offense. Carl Cherenfant and Jerrell Colbert retain some of the defensive backbone, while Corey Chest, Christian Nitu and Alier Maluk give Armstrong a huge collection of frontcourt options. The talent is obvious. The spacing and decision-making must catch up. SFA has every right to believe the rematch can end differently. Matt Braeuer's first team went 20-2 in league play, averaged only 9.3 turnovers and made a program-record 302 threes. Replacing Player of the Year Keon Thompson is only part of the job. Lateef Patrick supplied another 15.2 points per game, and Jerald Colonel anchored the defense and offensive glass. Narit Chotikavanic returns after making 87 threes at 39.4 percent, Christian Green gives the Lumberjacks a veteran wing, and MJ Russell arrives from ULM after averaging 15.3 points. Estonian guard Erik Makke has already played against senior professionals. Braeuer needs one of those guards to force rotations before Chotikavanic starts punishing them. A&M-Corpus Christi is less glamorous and easier to trust. Jim Shaw's Islanders held opponents to 67.7 points and 30.2 percent from three while posting a plus-4.1 rebounding margin. Most of the scorers changed, but Sebastian Robinson brings 14.8 points per game and downhill strength from NJIT, Binael Basil adds a 240-pound rebounder, and Daniel Michelini-Jackson remains as a shooter who knows the program. Their best version makes every miss expensive and keeps Robinson from having to manufacture the whole offense. Then there is Lamar, the league's most entertaining gamble. Jordan Fee once took Gannon from 3-23 to 32-3, and his first Cardinals roster is almost completely new. Caden Hinker averaged 15.4 points and 6.4 rebounds at Augustana, Jeremiah Jones led Division II with 103 steals, and Filip Radakovic and Niccolò Moretti add passing to a long frontcourt. UTRGV supplies the best subplot. Brandon Chambers helped build McNeese's first two title teams before taking over the Vaqueros, then brought former Cowboy T'Johnn Brown with him. He knows the favorite's habits because he helped install them. The winter should expose every rebuilt backcourt and reward the teams that learn fastest. March brings the league back to one stubborn fact: the bid will again be awarded on McNeese's floor. The Cowboys can match ULM's four-title streak from 1990 through 1993. Everybody else knows exactly where that attempt must be stopped.
The defining storylineMcNeese can match ULM’s Southland record with a fourth straight tournament title. SFA already proved it can win the winter; now somebody has to take March away from the Cowboys.
Official projection + model comparison
The big board
See how every team stacks up through projected records, finish ranges, and the model’s view of the race.
Ranking machine · comparison at a glance
Editorial board vs. model
Teams are ordered by the official Shooty Hoops editorial rank.
- 1McNeeseLarry Johnson can win any Southland game, and McNeese's 48-1 three-year home record matters even more with the tournament in Lake Charles, though the rebuilt backcourt makes first place less automatic.Conf / overall19-3 / 26-6TierFavoriteCeiling / floor1–4Boards agree · #11Official rankMcNeeseLarry Johnson can win any Southland game, and McNeese's 48-1 three-year home record matters even more with the tournament in Lake Charles, though the rebuilt backcourt makes first place less automatic.Boards agree · #1Conf / overall19-3 / 26-6TierFavoriteRange1–4
- 2SFASFA still owns the league's cleanest shooting foundation, but turning another regular-season run into the NCAA bid depends on MJ Russell replacing Keon Thompson's creation and a new frontcourt replacing Jerald Colonel's stops.Conf / overall17-5 / 24-8TierContenderCeiling / floor1–5Boards agree · #22Official rankSFASFA still owns the league's cleanest shooting foundation, but turning another regular-season run into the NCAA bid depends on MJ Russell replacing Keon Thompson's creation and a new frontcourt replacing Jerald Colonel's stops.Boards agree · #2Conf / overall17-5 / 24-8TierContenderRange1–5
- 3A&M-CCCorpus has finished in the Southland's top five for five straight years, and Sebastian Robinson's downhill scoring plus Dan Mukuna's two-way production should extend the streak if a thin group of proven shooters holds up.Conf / overall16-6 / 20-12TierContenderCeiling / floor1–6Boards agree · #33Official rankA&M-CCCorpus has finished in the Southland's top five for five straight years, and Sebastian Robinson's downhill scoring plus Dan Mukuna's two-way production should extend the streak if a thin group of proven shooters holds up.Boards agree · #3Conf / overall16-6 / 20-12TierContenderRange1–6
- 4Lamar ULamar's 14-man clean slate gives Jordan Fee a point guard who protects the ball, a 15-point stretch forward and Division II's steals leader, enough talent to challenge the top three once the pieces learn one another.Conf / overall14-8 / 19-13TierContenderCeiling / floor2–93 spots higher than published model · #74Official rankLamar ULamar's 14-man clean slate gives Jordan Fee a point guard who protects the ball, a 15-point stretch forward and Division II's steals leader, enough talent to challenge the top three once the pieces learn one another.3 spots higher than published model · #7Conf / overall14-8 / 19-13TierContenderRange2–9
- 5SELADavid Kiefer replaced an offense that shot 28.3 percent from three with Tyler Rolison's control, Jackson Furman's shooting, JJ Massaquoi's force and Haki Muhammad II's scoring, but eleven newcomers must become a team quickly.Conf / overall13-9 / 17-15TierContenderCeiling / floor2–91 spot higher than published model · #65Official rankSELADavid Kiefer replaced an offense that shot 28.3 percent from three with Tyler Rolison's control, Jackson Furman's shooting, JJ Massaquoi's force and Haki Muhammad II's scoring, but eleven newcomers must become a team quickly.1 spot higher than published model · #6Conf / overall13-9 / 17-15TierContenderRange2–9
- 6UTRGVBrandon Chambers inherits the momentum of a program-record 14 league wins, but only two Vaqueros remain and a Tyler Junior College trio must help replace all five starters from the Southland's most efficient offense.Conf / overall12-10 / 16-16TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–115 spots higher than published model · #116Official rankUTRGVBrandon Chambers inherits the momentum of a program-record 14 league wins, but only two Vaqueros remain and a Tyler Junior College trio must help replace all five starters from the Southland's most efficient offense.5 spots higher than published model · #11Conf / overall12-10 / 16-16TierDangerous MiddleRange3–11
- 7New OrleansNick Jones can crack the paint and Kahlil Singleton can punish the help, giving Stacy Hollowell a proven scoring tandem while an entirely new collection of big men replaces last season's rebounding and rim protection.Conf / overall11-11 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–112 spots lower than published model · #57Official rankNew OrleansNick Jones can crack the paint and Kahlil Singleton can punish the help, giving Stacy Hollowell a proven scoring tandem while an entirely new collection of big men replaces last season's rebounding and rim protection.2 spots lower than published model · #5Conf / overall11-11 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleRange3–11
- 8UIWMekhi Conner's passing and Ismail Habib's scoring give Shane Heirman a new backcourt, but UIW must replace 57 points per game and prove its offense can work beyond San Antonio.Conf / overall9-13 / 13-19TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor4–122 spots higher than published model · #108Official rankUIWMekhi Conner's passing and Ismail Habib's scoring give Shane Heirman a new backcourt, but UIW must replace 57 points per game and prove its offense can work beyond San Antonio.2 spots higher than published model · #10Conf / overall9-13 / 13-19TierDangerous MiddleRange4–12
- 9NWSTFour newcomers averaged at least 16.9 points at their previous stops, giving Northwestern State far more upside than a typical ninth-place pick.Conf / overall7-15 / 10-21TierLong ShotCeiling / floor5–121 spot lower than published model · #89Official rankNWSTFour newcomers averaged at least 16.9 points at their previous stops, giving Northwestern State far more upside than a typical ninth-place pick.1 spot lower than published model · #8Conf / overall7-15 / 10-21TierLong ShotRange5–12
- 10Houston Chr.Max Alexander's 22-point scoring history and the Mara-Simmons rim-protection tandem make Houston Christian the bottom-four team most capable of making our tenth-place call look foolish.Conf / overall6-16 / 10-22TierLong ShotCeiling / floor3–126 spots lower than published model · #410Official rankHouston Chr.Max Alexander's 22-point scoring history and the Mara-Simmons rim-protection tandem make Houston Christian the bottom-four team most capable of making our tenth-place call look foolish.6 spots lower than published model · #4Conf / overall6-16 / 10-22TierLong ShotRange3–12
- 11NichollsDarion Brown's first roster pairs Doyel Cockrill's shooting with Jared Taylor's 16-and-9 interior production, giving a near-total reset a workable starting point.Conf / overall5-17 / 8-24TierLong ShotCeiling / floor5–122 spots lower than published model · #911Official rankNichollsDarion Brown's first roster pairs Doyel Cockrill's shooting with Jared Taylor's 16-and-9 interior production, giving a near-total reset a workable starting point.2 spots lower than published model · #9Conf / overall5-17 / 8-24TierLong ShotRange5–12
- 12East Tx A&MKetraleus Aldridge and Romanian national-team guard Codrut Dinu bring genuine intrigue, but replacing 54.5 points per game from the five leading scorers is the Southland's steepest handoff.Conf / overall3-19 / 5-27TierLong ShotCeiling / floor8–12Boards agree · #1212Official rankEast Tx A&MKetraleus Aldridge and Romanian national-team guard Codrut Dinu bring genuine intrigue, but replacing 54.5 points per game from the five leading scorers is the Southland's steepest handoff.Boards agree · #12Conf / overall3-19 / 5-27TierLong ShotRange8–12
The interactive scouting room
Team-by-team preview
Move across the conference one program at a time. Open projected rotations, meet the players, and inspect the identity and postseason case behind every ranking.
2026-27 team preview · official rank 1
McNeese
Conference
19-3
Overall
26-6
Finish window
1–4
Confidence
76%
Official order · choose a team file
Projected rotation · Published roster depth chart
10 of 10 primary spots filled
Five on the floor
The All-Conference court
Explore all three projected teams. Select a player for the spotlight, then choose Open Player Card for their full profile.
The basket is on the upper baseline. Guards are positioned around the lower three-point perimeter, while forwards and centers are positioned in the upper lane and around the rim.
The hardware
The awards race
Browse every projected award race. See the current favorite, the strongest challengers, and the case for each pick.
The projected podium
Player of the Year
Why this pick leads
Johnson’s 17.4 points and 5.5 rebounds, first-team All-Southland recognition and returning lead role make him the clearest choice. Russell ranks second because his 15.3-point season at ULM and projected creation responsibility support a stronger overall case than Chotikavanic’s expected scoring growth. Robinson’s 14.8 points and second-team All-America East season keep him close. Russell’s 31.3 percent three-point shooting at ULM is a reason to stop short of making him the favorite.
How strongly the current projection favors this pick. These are not betting odds.
Beyond the main ballot
The extra pages
Meet the players outside our All-Conference and award picks who could still shape the race, then explore breakout candidates and bold predictions.
Beyond the ballots
Race Shapers
Five players who change the matchups
These players sit outside the All-Conference selections and award podiums, but their particular assignments could reshape the race.

Dellquan Warren
McNeeseG · JrThe first pass matters
Dellquan Warren unlocks the frontcourt
Warren moves from 7.5 minutes per game at Mississippi State into McNeese's starting point-guard assignment. His most consequential contribution may be delivering the ball before the defense settles: early entries and quick reversals can keep the Cowboys' interior players from occupying the same patch of paint.
68% confident
Niccolo Moretti
Lamar UG · R-SrPunish the second defender
Niccolo Moretti keeps Lamar moving
Moretti averaged 3.3 assists at Florida Atlantic. Lamar needs that decision-making to turn the attention Filip Radakovic attracts into another advantage, rather than another contested drive. Moretti's willingness to shoot when opponents retreat will determine how often those passing windows stay open.
70% confident
Caden Bell
UTRGVG · SOA real shooting baseline
Caden Bell changes the help rules
Bell shot 47.1 percent from three at Tyler and earned NJCAA second-team All-America recognition. If defenders must stay attached to him, UTRGV can give its slashing wings cleaner lanes. The step up in closeout speed makes that translation consequential rather than automatic.
73% confident
Yanis Ndjonga
SELAF · SrSmall minutes, larger responsibility
Yanis Ndjonga makes small workable
Ndjonga collected 3.5 rebounds in only 10.7 minutes per game at McNeese. Southeastern needs him to extend that activity across a starting center's workload. Holding his position without constant help would allow the Lions' perimeter defenders to stay closer to shooters.
63% confident
Mekhi Conner
UIWG · JrAn established distributor
Mekhi Conner gives UIW a head start
Conner led the MAAC with 194 assists at Sacred Heart and produced a 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. UIW can let him organize possessions while Ismail Habib hunts scoring chances. That division of labor could make a largely new offense functional much sooner than expected.
77% confident
The next step
Breakout Team
Growth with a basketball reason
Each selection starts with an established baseline and a specific change in opportunity or usage.

Gediminas Alisas
SFAF · JrMore touches at the elbow
Gediminas Alisas becomes a passing hub
Alisas recorded 42 assists against 26 turnovers while playing about 14 minutes per game. SFA can use him as the receiver after an initial screen, letting him feed cutters or finish. A starting role should expand those decisions without requiring him to become a perimeter shooter.
74% confident
Carl Cherenfant
McNeeseF · SrEarn offense through movement
Carl Cherenfant scores behind the help
Cherenfant averaged 4.1 points despite making 15 starts. With opponents turning toward Larry Johnson, baseline cuts and offensive rebounds offer a more credible scoring jump than assuming a sudden transformation from his 21.4 percent three-point baseline.
65% confident
Jordan Mizell
A&M-CCG · JrDefense can create the next role
Jordan Mizell turns steals into offense
Mizell's Tarleton State season supplied a strong disruption baseline but only 5.2 points per game. Corpus Christi can raise his scoring through transition chances while Sebastian Robinson handles more difficult half-court possessions, reducing the need for an immediate jump-shot breakthrough.
66% confident
Michael Folarin
East Tx A&MC · GrBecome the reliable target
Michael Folarin finishes the possessions
Folarin averaged 4.9 points and 3.7 rebounds in 21 appearances. East Texas A&M's new guards need predictable screening and a visible target near the rim; securing the starting center role gives him a straightforward route to more catches, finishes and rebounds.
64% confident
Jackson Furman
SELAG · SoBetter shots before more shots
Jackson Furman finds cleaner catches
Furman made 60 threes at Army but shot only 36.2 percent overall. Playing beside Tyler Rolison gives Southeastern a way to create his attempts through penetration and kickouts. The breakout case is improved shot quality, not simply permission to launch more often.
71% confident
Calls worth checking in March
Bold Predictions
Three breakouts that would reshape the Southland
Warren and Chest help keep McNeese dancing, Lamar climbs under Jordan Fee, and MJ Russell becomes SFA’s next star and the Southland’s Player of the Year.
McNeese finds two more stars
Warren and Chest become All-Southland players and send McNeese back to March Madness
Dellquan Warren and Corey Chest will both earn postseason All-Southland honors and, alongside Larry Johnson, carry McNeese to a fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament. Warren turns his Mississippi State apprenticeship into command of the offense, creating easy baskets before defenses can load up on Johnson. Chest becomes a force on the glass and around the rim; he already averaged 6.6 rebounds at LSU in 2024-25 before playing a smaller role at Ole Miss. The leap is substantial: Warren has never started a college game, and Chest must earn his minutes in a crowded frontcourt. Both emerge as players McNeese trusts to decide its biggest games.
Confidence · 38%
The rebuild moves fast
Lamar wins 20 games and Jordan Fee takes Coach of the Year
Lamar will jump from 12-19 to a 20-win season, finish in the Southland’s top three and make Jordan Fee the league’s Coach of the Year. The Cardinals have assembled pieces that can make each other better immediately: Niccolo Moretti supplies the organization, Caden Hinker opens the floor and Jeremiah Jones creates extra possessions with his pressure. Fee has already shown how quickly his approach can take hold, going 32-3 in his first season at Gannon. Building that chemistry with an entirely new roster is the gamble. Lamar becomes the team nobody wants to draw in March, and the scale of its improvement earns Fee the award.
Confidence · 45%
SFA’s next star
MJ Russell wins Southland Player of the Year
MJ Russell will win Southland Player of the Year. After averaging 15.3 points at ULM, he steps into the creation role vacated by Keon Thompson and becomes the guard the Lumberjacks trust with their biggest possessions. Narit Chotikavanic’s movement shooting gives Russell room to attack, while Matt Braeuer builds an offense around their complementary strengths. Russell’s 40 steals and 35 blocks at ULM point to ways he can influence games beyond scoring. The bold call is that his scoring, creation and defensive impact make him SFA’s next star and push him past Larry Johnson in the award race.
Confidence · 40%
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