Summit League 2026-27 Preview

01

The opening tip

Herro, Sayler and the Fight for First Billing

Expect four-out and five-out offenses to hunt mismatches, with guard creation abundant but reliable interior defense scarce enough to decide the best matchups.

The Summit enters 2026-27 without a single player from last season's all league first team. Denver's WCC move carried Player of the Year Carson Johnson away, the portal took St. Thomas stars Nolan Minessale and Nick Janowski, and North Dakota State's championship core scattered. Useful guards remain, but none returns as a proven closer. The title race has become a league wide audition for the next one. St. Thomas is the bold first place call because Johnny Tauer's offense keeps outliving roster change. The Tommies reached their first Division I postseason in last March's NIT after leading the country in two point percentage and posting a fifth straight season under 10 turnovers per game. Carter Bjerke's 44.9 percent shooting pulls centers from the lane. Austin Herro supplied 3.5 assists and 1.7 steals in a supporting role. Now he must create against switches while Bjerke survives stronger centers on the glass. South Dakota State owns the safest answer in Joe Sayler and Kalen Garry. Sayler averaged 14.5 points and shot 41.2 percent from three, while Garry added 10.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Either can initiate or finish. Their advantage depends on Alec Squires replacing Damon Wilkinson's interior work. Screening, rim defense and foul resistant minutes will determine whether the league's best backcourt becomes its best team. Oral Roberts and defending champion North Dakota State enter the argument from opposite directions. Connor Dow can become the Golden Eagles' featured scorer if freshman Jamal George settles the point guard job. The Bison kept league assist leader Andy Stefonowicz and added Rob Diaz III and Karl Poom, but David Richman must rebuild almost every defensive partnership. ORU needs a new organizer; NDSU needs its organizer to speed up a new roster. The chase pack can scramble that succession. South Dakota's Melo Sanchez shot 42.8 percent at Central Connecticut and can turn any game into a three point race. Omaha's Grant Stubblefield brings efficient creation, with Chris Dockery supplying downhill force and rebounding. Kansas City has the length to make half court games sticky. In a league stripped of incumbents, first place belongs to the first team that finds its last possession answer.

The defining storyline
Can St. Thomas protect and rebound well enough with Bjerke at center to preserve the spacing advantage that drives its first-place case?

02

Official projection + model comparison

The big board

See how every team stacks up through projected records, finish ranges, and the model’s view of the race.

Ranking machine · comparison at a glance

Editorial board vs. model

1St. ThomasBjerke's shooting keeps the Tommies first, though Herro and an untested guard committee must solve the close-game possessions once owned by Minessale and Janowski.
Conf / overall12-4 / 21-10TierFavoriteCeiling / floor1–4
1 spot higher than published model · #2
1Official rankSt. ThomasBjerke's shooting keeps the Tommies first, though Herro and an untested guard committee must solve the close-game possessions once owned by Minessale and Janowski.1 spot higher than published model · #2Conf / overall12-4 / 21-10TierFavoriteRange1–4
2SDak St.A proven Sayler-Garry backcourt places South Dakota State second, one year after a 7-9 finish exposed how quickly thin interior play can erase guard advantages.
Conf / overall11-5 / 20-11TierContenderCeiling / floor1–4
1 spot higher than published model · #3
2Official rankSDak St.A proven Sayler-Garry backcourt places South Dakota State second, one year after a 7-9 finish exposed how quickly thin interior play can erase guard advantages.1 spot higher than published model · #3Conf / overall11-5 / 20-11TierContenderRange1–4
3Oral RobertsOral Roberts rises to third on the bet that George can turn Dow and Gray from isolated scorers into parts of one connected offense.
Conf / overall10-6 / 19-12TierContenderCeiling / floor1–6
2 spots lower than published model · #1
3Official rankOral RobertsOral Roberts rises to third on the bet that George can turn Dow and Gray from isolated scorers into parts of one connected offense.2 spots lower than published model · #1Conf / overall10-6 / 19-12TierContenderRange1–6
4ND St.The defending champions slip to fourth because a 27-win rotation has narrowed to one proven lead guard and a transfer-heavy frontcourt.
Conf / overall9-7 / 17-14TierContenderCeiling / floor1–6
Boards agree · #4
4Official rankND St.The defending champions slip to fourth because a 27-win rotation has narrowed to one proven lead guard and a transfer-heavy frontcourt.Boards agree · #4Conf / overall9-7 / 17-14TierContenderRange1–6
5South DakotaSouth Dakota slots fifth because Sanchez can warp the floor immediately, while every defensive lineup still asks an unproven center to finish possessions.
Conf / overall8-8 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor2–7
Boards agree · #5
5Official rankSouth DakotaSouth Dakota slots fifth because Sanchez can warp the floor immediately, while every defensive lineup still asks an unproven center to finish possessions.Boards agree · #5Conf / overall8-8 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleRange2–7
6OmahaOmaha sits sixth because Stubblefield offers control and Dockery adds force, while nine newcomers leave the Mavericks searching for a reliable second scorer.
Conf / overall6-10 / 12-19TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor4–8
1 spot higher than published model · #7
6Official rankOmahaOmaha sits sixth because Stubblefield offers control and Dockery adds force, while nine newcomers leave the Mavericks searching for a reliable second scorer.1 spot higher than published model · #7Conf / overall6-10 / 12-19TierDangerous MiddleRange4–8
7Kansas CityMark Turgeon inherits a one-win league team, but late roster additions have given his total reset more proven shooting and playmaking than expected.
Conf / overall5-11 / 10-21TierLong ShotCeiling / floor4–8
1 spot lower than published model · #6
7Official rankKansas CityMark Turgeon inherits a one-win league team, but late roster additions have given his total reset more proven shooting and playmaking than expected.1 spot lower than published model · #6Conf / overall5-11 / 10-21TierLong ShotRange4–8
8North DakotaNorth Dakota opens eighth because seven members of a 10-win league rotation left, placing its offense in the hands of newcomers from lower levels.
Conf / overall3-13 / 7-24TierLong ShotCeiling / floor5–8
Boards agree · #8
8Official rankNorth DakotaNorth Dakota opens eighth because seven members of a 10-win league rotation left, placing its offense in the hands of newcomers from lower levels.Boards agree · #8Conf / overall3-13 / 7-24TierLong ShotRange5–8

03

The interactive scouting room

Team-by-team preview

Move across the conference one program at a time. Open projected rotations, meet the players, and inspect the identity and postseason case behind every ranking.

2026-27 team preview · official rank 1

St. Thomas (MN)

Guard-heavyElite shootingSmall-ballHigh variance

1/8

Conference

12-4

Overall

21-10

Finish window

1–4

Confidence

64%

Official order · choose a team file

Projected rotation · Published roster depth chart

10 of 10 primary spots filled

Tap any player

Starting five

Second unit

04

Five on the floor

The All-Conference court

Explore all three projected teams. Select a player for the spotlight, then choose Open Player Card for their full profile.

🥇 First Team

05

The hardware

The awards race

Browse every projected award race. See the current favorite, the strongest challengers, and the case for each pick.

1 / 7

The projected podium

Player of the Year

Why this pick leads

Joe Sayler owns the clearest route to elite volume after scoring 14.5 per game on 41.2 percent three-point shooting. Carter Bjerke's spacing and Andy Stefonowicz's all-around command keep the race contested.

Projection confidence73%

How strongly the current projection favors this pick. These are not betting odds.

06

Beyond the main ballot

The extra pages

Meet the players outside our All-Conference and award picks who could still shape the race, then explore breakout candidates and bold predictions.

The preview desk supplement3 features

Five players outside the ballots

Race Shapers

The Possessions That Move the Race

These players will not lead the preseason awards conversation, but each controls a pressure point that could reorder the standings.

Karl Poom
ND St.C · Jr
Interior answer
Karl Poom Changes the Geometry
Poom scored 8.9 points per game at Northern Arizona. If he punishes switches and survives defensively, North Dakota State can keep four creators around a functional interior scorer.
72% confident
EJ Ryans
SDak St.G · Jr
Volume test
EJ Ryans Takes the Third Chair
Ryans started every game at Western Michigan and now joins two proven guards. Efficient secondary creation would keep defenses from loading up on Sayler and Garry.
67% confident
Jeremy Lorenz
St. ThomasF · R-Jr
Size on demand
Jeremy Lorenz Holds the Middle
Lorenz offers St. Thomas a more conventional frontcourt option. His ability to rebound and defend centers could preserve Bjerke's shooting without conceding every interior matchup.
64% confident
Chris Dockery
OmahaF · R-Sr
Rebuild stabilizer
Chris Dockery Supplies the Contact
Dockery averaged 6.0 rebounds at Kansas City and gives Omaha a physical wing who can finish, rebound and defend while its young guards settle into larger roles.
63% confident
Samuel Hincapie
North DakotaG · Sr
Spacing swing
Samuel Hincapie Must Bend Defenses
North Dakota needs a second credible perimeter threat beside Kraft. Hincapie's willingness to shoot will matter even more than his raw scoring total.
61% confident

Five growth bets

Breakout Team

The Breakout Team

Each selection pairs a credible prior baseline with a specific change in minutes, usage or lineup responsibility.

Luke Gray
Oral RobertsF · Jr
More minutes, same efficiency
Luke Gray, Oral Roberts
Gray produced 8.5 points and 0.8 blocks in 17.2 minutes. A starting workload could turn that compact production into all-league value.
73% confident
Austin Herro
St. ThomasG · R-Jr
From connector to creator
Austin Herro, St. Thomas
Herro already supplied 3.5 assists and 1.7 steals. The opening is for him to maintain that two-way impact while doubling his scoring burden.
70% confident
Alec Squires
SDak St.C · R-So
Frontcourt promotion
Alec Squires, South Dakota State
Squires shot 60.2 percent and rebounded well in 14.9 minutes. Replacing a high-usage center gives him a direct route to a meaningful jump.
67% confident
Vince Buzelis
South DakotaG · So
Second-year expansion
Vince Buzelis, South Dakota
Buzelis finished efficiently around the basket as a freshman. Better perimeter shooting would unlock his handling and rebounding in larger lineups.
65% confident
Brock Scholl
OmahaF · So
Paint responsibility
Brock Scholl, Omaha
Scholl averaged 3.3 rebounds and 0.5 blocks in limited time. Omaha needs those rates to survive a much larger center assignment.
62% confident

Three calls with a scoreboard

Bold Predictions

Specific outcomes that can be judged cleanly when March arrives.

A narrow title call
St. Thomas Finally Goes Dancing
Bjerke's shooting and Herro's playmaking carry the reconstructed rotation through Sioux Falls, where St. Thomas wins the Summit tournament and earns the NCAA bid.
Confidence · 58%
Three bids for guards
South Dakota State Lands Two First-Team Guards
Sayler becomes the league's top scorer while Garry's rebounding and passing make the same lineup too productive to split across teams.
Confidence · 64%
One-week warning
Oral Roberts Reaches the Final
Dow and Gray give the Golden Eagles enough shooting and late-clock scoring to beat a higher seed in Sioux Falls and survive into the championship game.
Confidence · 56%

07

Your turn on the record

Build your conference ballot

Make every call yourself, save your unfinished ballot on this device, and see where your picks agree with Shooty Hoops or go their own way.

Stage 4 · Personal + public ballotPrivate until you publish

Build your own board

Rank the league, draw your tiers, name fifteen All-Conference players, and hand out the hardware. Your draft stays on this device until you choose to publish it. You can return to the same link to edit and resubmit later.

Checking for a local draft

08

The crowd's ballot

Community consensus

See where completed fan ballots agree, where opinions split, and how the community compares with Shooty Hoops and your own picks.

Counting the room

Building the current community board…

The Summit Needs a Closer

Conference superlatives