Fasten Your Sun Belts

The banners stay in Troy. Much of the team that earned them has moved on. Scott Cross is at Georgia Tech, with leading scorer and passer Victor Valdés joining him. Thomas Dowd, who averaged 10.1 rebounds, is at Auburn. After consecutive sweeps of the Sun Belt’s regular-season and tournament titles, the Trojans have given Adam Howard an unusual first assignment: defend a championship with a substantially different team. That makes Troy the starting point for this race, even with the Trojans seventh in our forecast. The program everyone has been chasing must discover how much of its success survives the departures. Howard knows the place; he was a Troy assistant when the school reached the 2017 NCAA tournament. Familiarity helps him understand the standard. It cannot replace Dowd’s rebounds or Valdés’s ability to manufacture offense. His new backcourt offers a plausible way forward. Jacoi Hutchinson averaged 12.3 points at Longwood and led the Big South in free-throw percentage at 86.2, giving Howard a ballhandler worth trusting when opponents start fouling. Robert Davis Jr. arrives from Old Dominion trying to recapture the form that produced a school-record 116 threes in 2024–25. Hutchinson can handle the initiation; Davis can make defenders follow him away from the ball. Getting those jobs to complement each other is the first step. Replacing Dowd’s work on the glass is a separate, substantial problem. JMU has already seen its new scoring addition from the wrong side of the scouting report. Gage Lattimore put 29 on the Dukes for North Carolina Central last December. Preston Spradlin subsequently recruited the player who had caused all that trouble. Lattimore averaged 16.6 points and shot 39.2 percent from three, providing evidence that he can punish defenders both for backing off and for losing him while watching someone else. He also gives Adrian Myers a useful partner. The San Jose State transfer finished last season averaging 19.4 points and eight rebounds over his final eight games, a late surge that makes him more intriguing than his full-season averages alone suggest. At 6-foot-6, Myers can score without monopolizing the dribble and help rebound from the wing. Gardner-Webb transfer Jacob Hogarth, who averaged 11 points and 6.5 boards, supplies a target closer to the basket. That combination earns JMU our first-place pick: several credible scoring options, with different ways to involve them. The test is whether the Dukes can keep bigger opponents from turning misses into repeated chances. Arkansas State’s argument begins with the ball in Tameron Ferguson’s hands. He averaged 20 points and 6.5 assists at Division II Augustana, and Ryan Pannone specifically recruited his ability to create advantages off the dribble and in the pick-and-roll. The jump in competition matters. Defenders will close those passing windows faster, and beating the first man will not always mean reaching the rim. Layne Taylor should make that transition less lonely. At Murray State, he recorded 100 assists against 30 turnovers, and Pannone sees him working both with and without the ball in his fast-paced offense. Ferguson can attack a screen while Taylor waits for the kickout, then Taylor can take over the next possession without requiring an entirely different playbook. Their partnership gives our second-place pick a convincing offensive foundation. How well the Red Wolves protect the basket behind those guards will determine whether that offense buys them a title. Georgia State is making an even bigger bet on assembly. Jon Cremins’s first roster has 14 newcomers among 15 players, including 11 transfers. His years alongside Mark Byington at JMU and Vanderbilt give the project a recognizable coaching pedigree; the Panthers still have to establish the habits that made those teams work. McNeese transfer Jacolb Fredson-Cole can contribute on the boards without needing plays called for him, an important skill on a roster full of players learning new roles. AJ Smith adds an experienced scorer, although a shoulder injury ended his Temple season after eight appearances; his ability to sustain a full workload deserves attention. Our third-place projection asks a lot of a team that must introduce itself before it can impose itself. Southern Miss has a compelling alternative to all that guesswork: Isaac Taveras has already done this here. He averaged 15.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.2 steals, then scored 32 against Troy in the conference semifinal. A hand injury interrupted his season, making a full year of his production especially valuable. His rebounding lets him start attacks before the defense settles, but a 5-for-29 three-point season gives opponents a reason to crowd his drives. The Golden Eagles’ dark-horse case depends on creating room for their best player to reach the basket. Even the membership has changed, with Louisiana Tech arriving as Texas State leaves. Across an 18-game conference schedule, there is time for these new combinations to become convincing. JMU starts with our vote. Troy starts with the trophies. The fun will be finding out whether the Sun Belt’s next champion can be built in one offseason—or whether Howard can keep the old address on the invitation to March.