The American
Memphis Bites Back
Tylik Weeks arrives after averaging 19.7 points, Jayden Reid brings control, and Rihards Vavers brings 41.2-percent shooting to a rebuilt rotation with enough organization, spacing and firepower to make Memphis our pick to win The American.
The cover line
Sonny Wilson gives South Florida a tested organizer, while AJ Dancler and Andrej Shoshkikj stretch the floor around him. Wichita State can play through Jordan Frison and still own the glass behind Will Berg and Dillon Battie. FAU can rotate Kanaan Carlyle, Jelani Hamilton and Braeden Speed through the point of attack until a matchup cracks.
Projected champion
Memphis
The team to beat on our official board
Dark horse
FAU
The team most likely to break the bracket
Projected NCAA bids
1
A deep one-bid baseline with several teams capable of building credible at-large résumés.
Chaos rating
48 / 100
How likely the board is to get weird
The quick read
Conference superlatives
The opening tip
The Tigers Hit Reset
The American should be defined by experienced transfer guards, aggressive point-of-attack defense and a sharp divide between teams with proven rim protection and those relying on spacing.
One year after going 29-6 and sweeping The American’s regular-season and tournament titles, Memphis fell all the way to 13-19. The Tigers entered Birmingham as the No. 8 seed, lost 81-69 to Tulane in the opening round and finished with the program’s first losing season since 1999-2000. They used 18 starting lineups in 32 games and managed seven assists in the finale. That is the starting point for our boldest call: Memphis climbing from a season of disorder to first place in 2026-27. Penny Hardaway did not answer with a patch. Eight of the ten spots in our projected rotation belong to newcomers, and the most important pieces arrive with clear jobs. Tylik Weeks led the Sun Belt at 19.7 points per game and gives Memphis a 6-foot-7 scorer who can attack mismatches and live at the line. Jayden Reid averaged 5.0 assists at Northwestern and can organize the traffic around him. Rihards Vavers made 73 threes at 41.2 percent. Brandin Cummings was averaging 12.5 points at Pitt before injury. Memphis can now put passing, downhill pressure and real shooting on the floor together. The rebuild still has to behave like a team. Julius Thedford is the lone member of the projected ten with verified production at Memphis, and the Tigers’ rim protection is far less proven than their scoring. That creates an opening for a South Florida team defending both league titles, a Wichita State frontcourt built around Dillon Battie and Will Berg, and an FAU guard group that can turn a loose possession into a track meet. Memphis owns the highest offensive ceiling, not the safest floor. Still, no team in The American has a more dramatic ceiling swing. Hardaway has assembled the league’s deepest collection of proven scorers and playmakers, and the pieces fit more naturally than last season’s revolving lineups ever did. If Reid supplies order, Weeks supplies star power and the new rotation defends well enough to survive its learning curve, Memphis will not merely improve. It can complete one of the sport’s fastest conference turnarounds and return to the top.
The defining storylineCan South Florida's rebuilt perimeter preserve enough defense to outlast Memphis's size and Wichita State's interior continuity across eighteen league games?
Official projection + model comparison
The big board
See how every team stacks up through projected records, finish ranges, and the model’s view of the race.
Ranking machine · comparison at a glance
Editorial board vs. model
Teams are ordered by the official Shooty Hoops editorial rank.
- 1MemphisThe most explosive roster wins the top spot on the strength of Weeks's force and Reid's passing.Conf / overall14-4 / 22-9TierFavoriteCeiling / floor1–41 spot higher than published model · #21Official rankMemphisThe most explosive roster wins the top spot on the strength of Weeks's force and Reid's passing.1 spot higher than published model · #2Conf / overall14-4 / 22-9TierFavoriteRange1–4
- 2South Fla.The league's cleanest backcourt sits one dependable interior answer from first place.Conf / overall13-5 / 21-10TierContenderCeiling / floor1–41 spot lower than published model · #12Official rankSouth Fla.The league's cleanest backcourt sits one dependable interior answer from first place.1 spot lower than published model · #1Conf / overall13-5 / 21-10TierContenderRange1–4
- 3Wichita St.The best frontcourt in the league makes Wichita State a genuine title threat.Conf / overall12-6 / 21-10TierContenderCeiling / floor1–5Boards agree · #33Official rankWichita St.The best frontcourt in the league makes Wichita State a genuine title threat.Boards agree · #3Conf / overall12-6 / 21-10TierContenderRange1–5
- 4FAUFAU can score with anyone, provided its new interior survives the return trip.Conf / overall11-7 / 19-12TierContenderCeiling / floor2–7Boards agree · #44Official rankFAUFAU can score with anyone, provided its new interior survives the return trip.Boards agree · #4Conf / overall11-7 / 19-12TierContenderRange2–7
- 5TulsaA skill-heavy rebuild keeps Tulsa high despite almost total role turnover.Conf / overall10-8 / 18-13TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–8Boards agree · #55Official rankTulsaA skill-heavy rebuild keeps Tulsa high despite almost total role turnover.Boards agree · #5Conf / overall10-8 / 18-13TierDangerous MiddleRange3–8
- 6N TexasA proven defensive spine makes North Texas the best threat outside the top five.Conf / overall10-8 / 18-13TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor3–91 spot higher than published model · #76Official rankN TexasA proven defensive spine makes North Texas the best threat outside the top five.1 spot higher than published model · #7Conf / overall10-8 / 18-13TierDangerous MiddleRange3–9
- 7UABThree real scorers meet one unresolved frontcourt.Conf / overall9-9 / 17-14TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor4–101 spot higher than published model · #87Official rankUABThree real scorers meet one unresolved frontcourt.1 spot higher than published model · #8Conf / overall9-9 / 17-14TierDangerous MiddleRange4–10
- 8CharlotteProven wing offense lifts Charlotte above its uncertain interior profile.Conf / overall8-10 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor5–123 spots higher than published model · #118Official rankCharlotteProven wing offense lifts Charlotte above its uncertain interior profile.3 spots higher than published model · #11Conf / overall8-10 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleRange5–12
- 9TempleA top-half defense meets a bottom-half creation problem.Conf / overall8-10 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor5–123 spots lower than published model · #69Official rankTempleA top-half defense meets a bottom-half creation problem.3 spots lower than published model · #6Conf / overall8-10 / 15-16TierDangerous MiddleRange5–12
- 10TulaneTulane trades conventional size for enough shooting to wreck a favorite's night.Conf / overall7-11 / 14-17TierDangerous MiddleCeiling / floor6–131 spot lower than published model · #910Official rankTulaneTulane trades conventional size for enough shooting to wreck a favorite's night.1 spot lower than published model · #9Conf / overall7-11 / 14-17TierDangerous MiddleRange6–13
- 11ECUECU has experienced wings but no clean replacement for either departed centerpiece.Conf / overall6-12 / 13-18TierLong ShotCeiling / floor7–131 spot lower than published model · #1011Official rankECUECU has experienced wings but no clean replacement for either departed centerpiece.1 spot lower than published model · #10Conf / overall6-12 / 13-18TierLong ShotRange7–13
- 12UTSAA lively guard group cannot fully conceal the league's biggest interior question.Conf / overall5-13 / 11-20TierLong ShotCeiling / floor8–13Boards agree · #1212Official rankUTSAA lively guard group cannot fully conceal the league's biggest interior question.Boards agree · #12Conf / overall5-13 / 11-20TierLong ShotRange8–13
- 13RiceThe defense has a shape; the offense still needs a source.Conf / overall4-14 / 10-21TierLong ShotCeiling / floor9–13Boards agree · #1313Official rankRiceThe defense has a shape; the offense still needs a source.Boards agree · #13Conf / overall4-14 / 10-21TierLong ShotRange9–13
The interactive scouting room
Team-by-team preview
Move across the conference one program at a time. Open projected rotations, meet the players, and inspect the identity and postseason case behind every ranking.
2026-27 team preview · official rank 1
Memphis
Conference
14-4
Overall
22-9
Finish window
1–4
Confidence
72%
Official order · choose a team file
Projected rotation · Published roster depth chart
10 of 10 primary spots filled
Five on the floor
The All-Conference court
Explore all three projected teams. Select a player for the spotlight, then choose Open Player Card for their full profile.
The basket is on the upper baseline. Guards are positioned around the lower three-point perimeter, while forwards and centers are positioned in the upper lane and around the rim.
The hardware
The awards race
Browse every projected award race. See the current favorite, the strongest challengers, and the case for each pick.
The projected podium
Player of the Year
Why this pick leads
Stevenson's established two-way production gives him the narrow edge over Weeks's scoring power and Wilson's command of a deeper South Florida backcourt.
How strongly the current projection favors this pick. These are not betting odds.
Beyond the main ballot
The extra pages
Meet the players outside our All-Conference and award picks who could still shape the race, then explore breakout candidates and bold predictions.
Five players who can tilt the order
Race Shapers
Not award picks, but pivotal answers to the league's biggest lineup questions.
Reece Robinson
N TexasF · JrNorth Texas' interior hinge
Reece Robinson Holds the Back Line
Robinson's rebounding and rim protection must keep North Texas elite defensively after Dylan Arnett's departure, especially when its guards press higher.
75% confident
Rihards Vavers
MemphisF · SrMemphis' spacing lever
Rihards Vavers Stretches the Race
Vavers made 41.2 percent of his threes at Washington State; that gravity can clear driving lanes for Reid and Weeks.
72% confident
Jeremy Elyzee
UABF · JrUAB's defensive connector
Jeremy Elyzee Changes the Matchup
Elyzee's length, passing and rim activity give UAB a flexible reserve capable of rescuing lineups that otherwise skew toward offense.
70% confident
TJ Nadeau
TulaneF · JrTulane's spacing bet
TJ Nadeau Bends the Floor
Nadeau's 46.7 percent three-point season forces defenses away from Lewis and gives Tulane a route around its interior limitations.
71% confident
Dorian Hayes
UTSAF · SoEfficiency is the swing
Dorian Hayes Finds the Shot
Hayes already handled 30 minutes per game as a freshman; modest shooting growth would convert that experience into dependable UTSA offense.
69% confident
Five credible leaps
Breakout Team
Players with a real baseline and a specific route to more value.
Jaylen Lawal
TulsaG · SoInstant offense, larger stage
Jaylen Lawal Earns More Run
Lawal's 7.3 points and 39.1 percent three-point shooting in 13.3 minutes support a major role increase in Tulsa's rebuilt backcourt.
77% confident
Chris Davis Jr.
South Fla.G · SoFrom reserve to closer
Chris Davis Jr. Becomes a Finisher
Davis made 38.8 percent from three at Charleston and can become South Florida's second-unit scorer without carrying primary creation.
73% confident
Salim London
UABG · SoA bigger defensive assignment
Salim London Takes the Point
London's passing and defensive ratings suggest more than his 4.9-point baseline; UAB needs him to steady bench possessions and pressure opposing guards.
71% confident
Cam Carroll
RiceG · SoRice's pressure point
Cam Carroll Must Set the Table
Carroll's passing can organize Rice, but a major shooting improvement is required to keep defenders from ducking under every screen.
68% confident
Eli DeLaurier
ECUF · R-JrA frontcourt role opens
Eli DeLaurier Steps Inside
DeLaurier moves from a 15.9-minute role into East Carolina's starting center job, where stronger finishing and rebounding could reshape its floor.
67% confident
Three testable calls
Bold Predictions
Specific outcomes with enough evidence to risk being wrong.
No plot twist
The Chalk Refuses to Crack
Memphis owns the highest offensive ceiling, South Florida the steadiest backcourt, Wichita State the strongest interior foundation and FAU the deepest group of creators. They may trade places, but all four finish inside the top four.
Confidence · 64%
Miller time
It's Miller Time in Charlotte
Wes Miller brought familiar organizers in Jizzle James and Keyshuan Tillery, then paired them with Dorian Finister's proven scoring. Charlotte finishes fifth and turns that guard play into a run to the conference tournament semifinals.
Confidence · 58%
Storm warning
Tulsa's Rebuild Hits Turbulence
Tulsa added real skill, but Eric Konkol is replacing nearly every major role at once. The new pieces take too long to settle defensively and in late-game possessions, sending the Golden Hurricane back into the bottom half.
Confidence · 61%
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